Carabao Cup time for the champions

In the 4th quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup , the English League Cup, Manchester City is a guest at FC Southampton . The English soccer champion should win this game confidently according to the betting odds , after all he is playing here in the last of the Premier League.

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Southampton analysis

Southampton Football Club have suffered 3 defeats in their last 4 competitive games, but most recently won 2-1 at Crystal Palace in the FA Cup. This means that in the past 10 matches only 2 wins and 2 draws with 6 defeats in the regular season. The Saints go into the encounter with the champion as a blatant outsider in the Southampton vs. ManCity prediction.

The southern English lost the last two home games– against Brighton and Nottingham. In the past 10 appearances in their own stadium there have only been 2 full successes with 3 draws in 90 minutes and 5 home defeats. In the last 8 home games, FC Southampton could only prevail once. The Saints have conceded goals in their last 13 home games. In the last 10 competitive games they conceded the first goal of the game.
Nathan Jones has been the Saints coach since November . An improvement to Ralph Hasenhüttl is not recognizable. The southern English have only won 2 of the first 6 competitive games under the Welshman and lost 4. Also 3 out of the last 4 encounters were lost. This has pushed Southampton to the bottom of the Premier League table. The gap to the saving 17th place is 3 points.

Both teams have scored in 5 of Jones' 6 games. Southampton have conceded goals in all 6 matches and lost one game to zero. In both cup games there were double goals, 3x the southern English had to accept more than 1.5 goals. This resulted in more than 2.5 goals and 2 times over 3.5 goals in 5 games. There have been fewer than 4.5 cards in 7 of Southampton's last 8 competitive games, with a total of under 10.5 corners being awarded in those 8 matches.

The Saints are in the bottom 8 of the League Cup for the first time in 6 years . At that time they even reached the final, which was lost to ManUnited. This was Southampton's only final appearance in the English League Cup. Only one more time did the southern English finish in the last 4 in the Carabao Cup, in recent years the final stop was in the 4th round at the latest.

Manchester City analysis

The Skyblues have not lost in the last 5 competitive games with 4 wins. Most recently, they won twice in a row without conceding against Chelsea. In the past 12 matches, coach Pep Guardiola's team has only lost once . The Citizens are 2nd in the Premier League, 5 points behind Arsenal. For the bookies, the English champions are favorites to defend their title with odds of just over 1.50. City is even more favored in Southampton.

Manchester have won their last 3 away games and are undefeated in the last 4 matches away from home. In the past 15 guest appearances since last May, they have only had to admit defeat once. In the last 4 away games, the Guardiola team only conceded 1 goal, but in the last 6 matches abroad, they only conceded 1x more than 1.5 goals themselves.

Less than 1.5 goals were scored in 5 of these 6 away games. The Skyblues scored the first goal in the last 6 competitive games. However, ManCity only won the first two EFL Cup games in the second half. At the break it was still a draw. In the last 5 meetings they have stayed under 10.5 corners in total, which fits very well with Southampton's numbers. Likewise, we see a match for less than 4.5 cards, which has been the case in 6 of Manchester City's last 8 matches.

Guardiola already spared a number of regulars in the 4-0 win against Chelsea, including striker Haaland. The coach could also do without a few stars in the League Cup at Southampton, but we think that Haaland will be itching for his next assignment - and is hot for goals.

The Citizens have won the League Cup 7 times in club history. They have won 6 of those titles in the past 9 years, 4 in the last 5 seasons. So it's no wonder that Man City is the top favorite for the bookies this season. In this season, the Skyblues have already eliminated 2 top-class teams and co-favorites for the title, Chelsea and Liverpool. The Citizens scored over 1.5 goals in both games, and they didn't concede a goal against Chelsea. With a betting odd of 1.88, ManCity are favorites to win the EFL Cup.

Southampton - Manchester City: What to expect? 

This season, the Saints faced lower division clubs in the first 3 rounds. They went to penalties in the third round against Sheffield Wednesday and have conceded goals in the last two meetings. A few days ago, the southern English won in the FA Cup against league rivals Crystal Palace - quite surprising, after all, they were big outsiders with odds of 4.50.

Man City have not lost in the last 6 direct duels against Southampton (4 wins, 2 draws), while having won the last two meetings. Southampton have only won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 in the last 10 H2H comparisons. The Saints could only win one of the last 6 home duels. In the last two guest appearances Manchester remained undefeated (1w, 1d). Southampton have only scored 3 goals in their last 6 home games. The Skyblues, on the other hand, scored twice in 6 of the last 10 direct duels, in 3 of the last 5 matches there were even 4 or more goals each. Guardiola was only beaten once in 15 comparisons with the Saints, in return he won 11 times in 3 draws.

We expect an unchallenged victory from Manchester City. The Skyblues can therefore win even with a simple handicap. The two goals handicap already gives you a 2.70 odd for the away win. We expect goals from both teams and therefore you can risk Over 3.5 goals.

• Manchester City to win with handicap (-1.5) at odds of 1.69
• Both teams to score at odds of 1.93 
• Over 3.5 at odds of 2.20

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.