Der Klassiker with a new - old face!

The top game in the German Bundesliga awaits us on Saturday. League leaders Borussia Dortmund travel to Munich and want to defend their lead there. Bayern have a new coach on the sidelines in Thomas Tuchel, the former manager of Mainz, Dortmund, PSG and Champions League winner with Chelsea. So Borussia Dortmund will meet an old friend. 

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Bayern want to regain top position

Bayern Munich is playing a good season, after all they are still represented in 3 competitions and therefore have the chance of the triple. An important game awaits them on Saturday in the Bundesliga. Then they meet the current leaders Borussia Dortmund. They are currently at the top of the table with one more point. They owe this primarily to their outstanding form in 2023. They have remained unbeaten in the league so far. In Munich, BVB would probably be satisfied with a draw, after all, they would then keep the lead in the table. For Bayern under the new coach Thomas, of course, only a win counts. With this one would at least play out a 2 point lead again.

It was the big topic of the past week. FC Bayern Munich fires coach Julian Nagelsmann in the middle of the season to make room for Thomas Tuchel. Although the Bavarians were still involved in all 3 competitions and were even considered favorites for the Champions League title, the bosses saw no sporting development. The long-term Nagelsmann project was therefore ended from one day to the next. Now Thomas Tuchel is the next German coach on the sidelines. This is considered a very complicated interlocutor, which is why it will be interesting to see how this develops at Bayern Munich. In the short term, however, he should lead Bayern back to the top of the table and win the championship title.

Although Bayern have changed coaches, they are still the clear favorites in this top game. They still have the higher quality squad to beat any opponent at home. They are undefeated there this season. With Thomas Tuchel, they haven't signed just any coach, but possibly one of the 3 best coaches in recent years. He also knows BVB very well, after all he worked there himself for 2 years before the break-up occurred. The direct duels against Dortmund also speak clearly for Bayern, but more on that later. The hosts are still unbeaten after 12 home games this year, but have had to settle for a draw four times.However, they were all able to win the last 3 home games and scored a strong 11 goals.

Bayern are not having a bad season in the Bundesliga, but 7 draws and 3 defeats in 25 games is not a good record for Bayern. In the past few years, they always had more points in their account and were at the top of the table. The 3 defeats were all conceded away, there they also had to concede 16 goals in 13 games.In the Allianz Arena they are a bit better, but the 11 goals conceded in 12 games are not outstanding either. They managed to keep a clean sheet in just 8 of 25 games this season. On the last two matchdays against Leverkusen and Augsburg they had to concede 5 goals. The absences of Manuel Neuer and Lucas Hernandez are certainly not helpful.

How will Tuchel lineup Bayern? This is probably the big question that many experts are asking themselves at the moment. Thomas Tuchel is known for making changes and giving some new players a chance. However, the first game against Dortmund is not suitable for experiments. So we wouldn't expect too many surprises. With Jamal Musiala and Choupo-Moting, two experienced offensive players are still questionable at the moment. Otherwise, apart from the two long-term injured Manuel Neuer and Lucas Hernandez, all players are available to the coach. Tuchel could switch back to a back four and act in a 4-3-3 system.He's spoiled for choice on offense. It will probably also depend a lot on training during the week. One or the other reservist could be recommended there, the squad is definitely broad enough for that.

Borussia Dortmund in top form

In autumn BVB was already outside the Champions League places and hardly anyone expected that they would be able to intervene in the championship fight. After an outstanding 2023 so far, they fought their way up to the top of the table. They are now one point ahead of Bayern in first place in the Bundesliga. In 10 league games in 2023, they picked up 9 wins and one more ended in a draw. Although the club always has some injured top performers, they manage to bring their quality to the pitch. They now want to do the same against Bayern, after all the big goal is to defend the lead in the table.

In the fall, the first critical voices were raised, but now nobody doubts Edin Terzic as a coach. For the first time in years, BVB has a real chance of winning the championship title and they owe this not least to their coach. The only downer in 2023 is elimination from the UEFA Champions League. There they could win the first leg against Chelsea 1-0, but away they had to admit defeat 2-0. It was Dortmund's first and only defeat this year. After dropping points in the league for the first time and only achieving a 2-2 draw against Schalke in the derby, a small crisis was predicted for the first time. But Dortmund nipped them in the bud,because on the last matchday they won 6-1 at home against Cologne.

While the black and yellow are the strongest home team in the Bundesliga, they can't show such strong performances away from home. Although they are also in the away table on the 2nd place, but in addition to 7 wins and a draw they have already lost 5 away games this year. The goal difference is even balanced with 19:19 goals. After all, they have been unbeaten in 5 away games, but the last one ended in a draw against Schalke. Before that they got 4 wins in a row.

Dortmund have had major injuries, especially on the offensive, in recent weeks. There, among others, Youssoufa Moukoko, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi fell out. Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has also been absent due to injury in recent weeks. Especially with Kobel and Brandt the chances are high that they will get fit in time. Karim Adeyemi could also be an option again. Captain Marco Reus will probably be in the starting line-up, as will Sebastian Haller. The Ivorian scored 2 goals just last matchday.

Dortmund have not had a good record against Bayern in the recent past. They haven't been able to win against them since 2019, when they won 2-0 in the Supercup final. They last won in the league in November 2018. They have been without a win for 9 games, and Bayern have won 8 of the last 9 games. This season, the first meeting ended with a 2-2 draw. It was the 7th duel in a row that ended with more than 3.5 goals. By the way: BVB last won in Munich in April 2017.

Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund: What to expect? 

FC Bayern have scored 24 goals in the last 10 games. In contrast, Dortmund scored 25 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 14.0, the teams averaged 4.9 goals per game. Therefore we recommend Over 4.5 Goals as a possible outcome. Both teams have scored in an average of 95% of the games. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.

It's the top game this weekend in the German Bundesliga. Thomas Tuchel is playing his first game against BVB. Of course, Bayern are the favorites at home, but with odds so low, we would advise against a win bet. Dortmund is simply too strong for that this year. With a bit of luck, they are quite capable of a draw. In this game, we think the best bet is “over 3.5 goals”. With this tip you would have always won in the last 7 duels.

• Over 3.5 goals
• Borussia Dortmund not to lose (X2 - double chance)

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.