Bundesliga returns with a top derby

The first Bundesliga game in 2023 is: RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern Munich. The table leader travels to table 3.- and would like to further expand the table lead. The Bulls, on the other hand, want to get within 3 points of Bayern, which won’t be such a surprise since after all, Leipzig is still undefeated at home this season. 

After the change of coach to Marco Rose, Leipzig was able to improve significantly and fought their way up to third place in the Bundesliga table. In the last few weeks before the World Cup, they were among the most in-form teams in Europe's top leagues. They conceded their last defeat in mid-September against Gladbach. In the home table they are even at the top and are still undefeated. But now they meet the strongest away team in the league and the table leader. After a rather subdued start to the season, Bayern have also been getting better and better lately. They have all won their last 6 Bundesliga games. Another win could put them 7 points away from their followers.

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RB Leipzig analysis

It is often amazing what a change of coach can do to a team. After Marco Rose took over the club, it has an average of 2.38 points per game in the past 16 games.He and his team were only beaten twice, away against Real Madrid and Borussia Mönchengladbach. The defeat against Marco Rose's ex-club was on 09/17/2022. They've been unbeaten since then and haven't lost in 13 games in total. During this period, they won, among other things, against Real Madrid, Bayer 04 Leverkusen and SC Freiburg. Before the start of the World Cup, Leipzig was one of the best-formed teams in Europe. 

A clear advantage for Leipzig in the game against Bayern should be that they play at home in front of their own fans. The Bulls were the strongest team in the league at home last fall. Together with Bayern and Union Berlin, they are the only team that is still undefeated at home. With 6 wins from 7 games, they are even in 1st place in the home table. This is primarily due to their strong defense. In 7 home games they only conceded 5 goals - top value in the league. They remained without a goal for the 4th time. Under Marco Rose, however, they could also improve offensively. In the last 10 competitive games, Leipzig has always been responsible for at least 2 goals.They also scored at least 2 goals in all 7 home games.

So far, Leipzig has been fairly quiet on the transfer market and there are hardly any rumors of upcoming arrivals or departures. Coach Marco Rose should be satisfied with his squad and primarily wants to keep it together. He should be able to do this by the summer, but then the best player in the squad, Christopher Nkunku, will switch to Chelsea. The Frenchman is by far the most dangerous player in the Bulls' squad this year with 12 goals. Behind follows Timo Werner with 4 goals. Bitter for Leipzig: Nkunku will probably be out until the end of February due to an injury . Captain and goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi is out until the end of the season with a cruciate ligament tear.

Dominik Szoboszlai has also developed into a top performer. With 7 assists, the former Salzburg player is one of the best assist providers in the Bundesliga. Marco Rose can also look forward to the return of Dani Olmo. The Spaniard missed numerous games in the autumn and should primarily compensate for the absence of Christoper Nkunku.

Bayern Munich analysis

Although the Bavarians could not win for 4 game days in autumn, they are currently at the top of the table after 15 game days. Above all, the development in the fall pointed in the right direction, after all, they were all able to win their last 10 competitive games. They also picked up victories against FC Barcelona and Inter Milan. They now meet Paris St. Germain in the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League. But we are mainly concentrating on the performances in the Bundesliga. There they still lead the table by 4 points. 

The Munich team shines this year primarily with a strong offensive. After 15 league games they already have 49 goals on their account. On average, this is more than 3,00 goals they score per game. That's 17 more goals than the 2nd best offensive in the league. After all, they scored 23 of these 49 goals away from home, which makes them the clear number 1 here as well. They have only failed to score in one competitive game this season and that was in the 1-0 defeat against FC Augsburg. This was also the only defeat of the season. Bayern have even managed to score twice in the last 13 games.

In contrast to the last few years with Robert Lewandowski, the goalscorers are divided up healthily this year. The outstanding man is certainly the only 19-year-old Jamal Musiala, who was able to deliver 7 assists in addition to 9 goals and is therefore the most successful scorer in the team. They are followed by Serge Gnabry with 8 goals and Sadio Mane with 6 goals. Due to the absence of Sadio Mane, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting has also played in the Bayern team. The Cameroonian has already scored 6 goals.

Although Bayern have already suffered a defeat away from home and 2 games ended in a draw, they are in first place in the away table ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt. They have all won their last 3 away games , which means they have now won 5 of 8 games. However, Bayern only managed to keep a clean sheet in 3 of 7 away games. In general, they only managed to do this once in the last 4 Bundesliga games.

The team has to do without one or the other top performer at the start of 2023. Above all, Manuel Neuer's absence weighs heavily, of course, and a replacement has not yet been committed . Sven Ulreich will therefore probably be used. In defense, Lucas Hernandez and Noussair Mazraoui are also missing two important players. Here Daley Blind from Ajax Amsterdam was committed as a replacement. It is not yet known how long Sadio Mane will be out on offense. A use in the top game against Leipzig is more than questionable.

RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich: What to expect? 

For Leipzig, it has usually not been a good experience to win against Bayern, as they have only won against Bayern once since the 2016/17 season. This was in 2018 when they won 2-1 at home on matchday 27. Since then they have been waiting for the next win, in total they haven't won against Bayern for 10 games. 4th time they achieved at least a draw in this period. In the last two years there were 4 defeats. The DFL Supercup final was also lost 3:5 in a spectacular game. By the way, it was the 3rd game in a row that ended with more than 4.5 goals . Only 1 time in the last 5 duels the sound barrier of 4.5 goals was not broken in the game.

The year 2023 begins in the Bundesliga with a real top game. Although Bayern are favorites, we wouldn't place a winning bet. This is mainly due to Leipzig's good home record. Our favorite betting tips would be "Both teams to score" and "over 3.5 goals". Both the last direct duels and the results this season clearly speak for a game with some goals. We would rather advise against a goalscorer bet, also because with Christopher Nkunku and Sadio Mane the two most dangerous players are out.

• Both teams to score 
• Over 3.5 

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.