Mainz and Gladbach duel for the international places

Both teams were successful on the last match day and prevailed as underdogs. Mainz clinched a win against Bayer Leverkusen and Gladbach defeated their favorite opponent Bayern Munich. Above all, the guests must finally bring consistency to their performance. In terms of squad quality, they are superior to Mainz. 

Who can take the momentum of the last match day better? The Mainzers are currently on a wave of success, after all they were able to win 3 of their last 4 games. Thanks to this good form, they fought their way back up to 9th place in the table. Now only one point separates her from the all-important 7th place. This would entitle them to qualify for the Europa Conference League. This will also be Gladbach's goal. 
The guests certainly have higher ambitions than Mainz, but the top 6 in the table don't seem to be catching up at the moment. Gladbach will therefore be looking at the last international place. For this, however, their performance must become more constant. After the win against Bayern, it will be interesting to see how motivated the team will be against Mainz.

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Mainz analysis

Last season they only missed out on an international starting place by a hair's breadth, because the season ended in 8th place. This year they are in similar table regions, because after 21 matchdays they are in 9th place in the Bundesliga. In all probability they will have nothing to do with relegation, after all they are already 10 points ahead of the relegation place. On the other hand, there could still be some progress, because they are only missing a single point in 7th place and VfL Wolfsburg. This place could possibly be enough for the Europa Conference League. A win against a direct competitor like Gladbach would be doubly valuable. After all, the current form speaks for the hosts, they still have 9 points from the last 4 league games.

Mainz will be satisfied with 2023 so far. After 6 games they have already accumulated 3 wins and lost another game. The two defeats were against the top teams Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin. The offensive has developed particularly well in recent weeks. Mainz could score a goal in every game in 2023. In the last 5 games there were even at least 2 goals each. Overall, they were responsible for 14 goals in 6 games. This makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the Bundesliga this year. The defensive stability has suffered a bit because of this, because at the same time they have conceded a goal in every game.

Mainz rarely concedes goals at home

In their own stadium, however, they are still one of the best defensive teams in the league. Although they are only in 14th place with 13 points after 10 home games, they have a top 8 defense here. In 10 games, the team only conceded 14 goals and thus less than 1.5 goals per game. The fact that they don't have a better record than 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats is primarily due to the offensive. It was only successful 17 times. Alone 8 of these 17 hits were scored in 2023. In the entire autumn they were only successful 9 times in 7 games. However, the positive development can be seen without question. In the last 4 home games they could always score at least one goal.

An attacking trio from Mainz has already scored a strong 21 goals this season and thus more than half of all the team's goals. These include Jae-sung Lee, Marcus Ingvartsen and Karim Onisiwo. The latter is currently the top scorer in the team with 8 goals. With Jonathan Brukardt, the regular number 1 striker is even missing. In winter, therefore, the decision was made to transfer Ludovic Ajorque. The Frenchman has shown good performances so far and coach Bo Svensson usually brings him on from the start. But he is still waiting for his first goal. After the 2:3 away win on the last match day, we believe that Mainz will also play against Gladbach with the same line-up.

Borussia Monchengladbach analysis

The Gladbachers are certainly not playing a particularly good season and have so far fallen short of their own expectations. On the last day of the game, however, they clinched an impressive win against record champions FC Bayern Munich. With these 3 points they climbed back to 8th place in the table. They are now level on points with their opponent from Mainz. What Gladbach is missing this season is clearly consistency in performance. In addition, the guests have a hard time away from home. Their only away win so far was against Hoffenheim on January 28th, 2023. It was one of only two wins in 2023. The team is still too vulnerable, especially defensively.

How good Gladbach can be and what quality they have in the squad was shown on the last day of the game against Bayern. With Lars Stindl and Jonas Hofmann, two absolute legends scored in this game. They could also bring a certain Marcus Thuram from the bank. The Frenchman then contributed his 11th goal of the season.Julian Weigl also has to sit on the bench at the start of the game. After being substituted on, however, he was injured and will miss the game against Mainz. Coach Daniel Farke has a broad team, especially on the offensive. Hannes Wolf is a player who suddenly rises from the ashes like a phoenix and has shown strong performances in recent weeks. No fewer than 4 players have scored 5 or more goals and 3 players have provided 6 or more assists.

Although Gladbach were able to clinch their first away win of the season a few weeks ago, the away weakness remains of course. This was also shown again in the last away game so far, because this was clearly lost 4:1 against Hertha and they are currently in a relegation zone. It was the 5th away defeat this season. So they lost half of their away games this year. At least 4 ended in a draw. The 13 goals scored in 10 games is not a bad figure considering they only won one game. There are only 7 teams in the league that conceded more goals. With 20 goals conceded, Gladbach concede an average of 2.00 goals per game.

Mainz - Gladbach: What to expect? 

The hosts were quite successful in the last duels against Gladbach, after all they remained unbeaten in the last 4 games against them. Mainz won the first duel on the 5th matchday of the season away with 0:1. It was the 3rd game in a row that ended with less than 2.5 goals. As good as the current form against Gladbach is, it is difficult to counteract it in their own stadium. There they could not win against Gladbach for 6 games. Gladbach has won 4 of these last 6 duels.With 5 goals, Jonas Hofmann particularly likes to score against Mainz. However, they always managed to score at least one goal in the last 7 duels. 

With 11 goals, the French international Marcus Thuram is still the top scorer in the Gladbach team. He also scored a goal in the top game against Bayern on the last day. In the weeks before, however, this was extremely difficult. Since it was clear that Thuram Gladbach would be left in the summer, things weren't going particularly well for the French. This came on the last matchdays therefore often only from the bank. We would therefore not currently place a goal bet.

Mainz and Gladbach celebrated a well-deserved win against an actually superior opponent on the last day of the game. In the table, the two teams are currently tied and the goal difference differs only slightly from each other. It is therefore quite possible that this game will end in a draw. A tip on a draw X is therefore suitable as a single bet. Gladbach also has major problems on the defensive. Mainz has improved a lot on the offensive this year. So it could be a winning game. With a bet on more than 2.5 goals you should be on the safe side.

• Draw X
• Over 2.5
• Marcus Thuram to score anytime (risk)

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.