Can AC Milan still manage the big miracle?
This week the fans can look forward to exciting top-flight football again and the last four teams are going into the second half of the semi-finals. This means that we are only one matchday away from the long-awaited final. In this analysis we look at the second leg of the Italian semifinals. Inter Milan welcomes AC Milan at home, so to speak, after putting themselves in a very good starting position with a 0:2 win in the first game. Now AC Milan is faced with the big task of somehow turning the result of the first leg and is considered a slight outsider.
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Hunting the treble
Of the four competitions in which they competed at the start of the season, Inter currently still have a chance to win three titles. Only the Italian league, Serie A, could not be secured because SSC Napoli clearly dominated the league. The Supercoppa Italiana was secured in January with a 0:3 win against AC Milan. That secured a title early on, even if it's probably rated the least desirable.
After being able to secure the Italian Cup last year, they still have the chance to defend this title this season. At the end of May they meet AC Fiorentina in the final and are considered favorites. Last but not least, they also have the opportunity to win the first Champions League title since the 09/10 season. Even if it is considered quite likely that they will reach the final, they will face a team against which they will probably be considered the clear underdog. Both Real Madrid and Manchester City are rated a bit higher.
The current game performance of Inter Milan gives a lot of hope. They have now been unbeaten for eight games and have met some good teams during this time. In the last five games they have a perfect record of five wins. Of course, what is probably the most demanding game in recent weeks is imminent, but with the current form they don't have to hide from anyone. They have very good chances of reaching the final of the Champions League.
There is hardly a team that insists more rigidly on its tactical plan than Inter Milan. The team under Simone Inzaghi runs exclusively in the back three on the defensive. Tactics have not changed once this season. The formation always remains the same and they only bet on the 3-5-2 formation. They always try to impose their own game plan on the opponent and not to adapt to the opponent.
In terms of injuries, at least in terms of the number of injured players, there are no major concerns. Only the absence of central defender Milan Skriniar hurts particularly. Due to a fractured lumbar vertebra, he is expected to be out until the end of the month. The 28-year-old is considered the clear anchor in Milan's defense and is also the third most valuable player in the squad.
AC Milan: Last chance for a title this season
The guests have their backs to the wall and have even more pressure. The Champions League is the last remaining competition in which they can still secure a trophy. The reigning Italian champions are currently in fifth place in the league and so they are likely to play for the Europa League next season. They also lost the Supercoppa Italiana to Inter Milan at the beginning of the year and were eliminated early in the round of 16 in the Italian Cup. For AC Milan it would be the first Champions League success since the 06/07 season. Even if everything is still open in the second leg, it seems quite unlikely that they can still secure the final ticket.
The pressured side from Milan will not reach the semi-finals of the Champions League in a strong form. Most recently they had to admit defeat twice in a row, including in the first leg against their city rivals. Before that, however, they had a nine-game unbeaten run. Among other things, they could also remain unbeaten three times against SSC Naples, which is currently considered the strongest team in Italy. They've shown that they can perform against the top teams, but now it's time to prove it again. In the last five games they have a record of only one win, two draws and two losses.
Unlike Inter, AC tactically changes back and forth a bit. Even if they use the same tactics quite often, they have a little more variety. In the current season, the team relied on the back three and the back four. The back four in the 4-2-3-1 formation was most often bet on and we therefore expect this for the second leg on Tuesday. AC Milan have more injuries and the most painful is the absence of Rafael Leão. This is not only the team's clear top performer, but also one of the best wingers in the entire football world. Due to adductor problems, it is not yet certain when he will be able to come back.
Inter - AC Milan: What to expect?
Contrary to what one would probably expect, the direct comparison of the two teams speaks a pretty clear language. In the last ten meetings, Inter Milan have won six times. Twice they parted with a draw and only twice could AC Milan prevail as the winner. The visitors' last win came in the first half of the league in September, when the game ended 3-2.
As mentioned in the introduction, the hosts are the slight favourites. Especially given the initial situation, it seems quite likely that they can prevail again. You shouldn't underestimate AC Milan, they will certainly give their all again, but in our opinion it's still not enough for a win. We therefore rely on tip 1. Even though AC Milan are missing their key attacking player, it's still a do or die game and we believe both teams will score.
- Inter not to lose (1X or 1 DNB)
- Inter to win (risk)
- Both Teams To Score
* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.