Tuchel meets Guardiola. Again.

It is probably the best quality game in this Champions League quarterfinals. Manchester City meets Bayern Munich at home in the first leg. Together with Real Madrid, these two teams are probably the top favorites for the title this year. But only one makes it to the semifinals. City is clearly favored by the bookies at home. Thomas Tuchel knows the hosts very well from his time at Chelsea. And of course when he won the Champions League with the Blues against Manchester City back in 2021.

Once again City is one of the big favorites for the Champions League title this year. But they have already had this for the last 5 years and the title never shows through. This year they have the next tough opponent in front of their chest in Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals. For the English it is first and foremost about getting a good result at home. Bayern, on the other hand, have the advantage of being able to play the second leg at home. After a furious victory against Dortmund and an embarrassing defeat against Freiburg, the team under the new coach Thomas Tuchel is still extremely difficult to assess. From a victory to a crushing defeat everything seems to be possible.

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Manchester City and the Champions League curse

Perhaps the best team of the last 6 years has still not managed to win the Champions League . Pep Guardiola's big goal has so far been denied to the Spaniard. The greatest success so far was reaching the final in the 2010/21 season, where they then had to admit defeat to Chelsea. Last year was against Real Madrid in the semifinals. Before that, they were even eliminated in the quarterfinals for 3 years in a row. The good news: Manchester City has never been eliminated by Bayern. As always, they are among the big favorites again this year, but with Bayern Munich they now have the first real touchstone in the premier class.
In the group phase they were still the clear favorite in a group with Dortmund, Sevilla and FC Copenhagen. Manchester City showed good, but not outstanding performances. With 4 wins and 2 draws, they remained undefeated in the 6 group games.In contrast to previous years, however, they did not convince with a spectacular offensive, but rather with a stable defense. In 6 group games, they only allowed 2 goals against. In the round of 16 against Leipzig, they only had to concede one goal. In the end, thanks to a 7-0 home win, they prevailed with a total score of 8-1 goals. Incidentally, Erling Haaland scored 5 of these 7 goals. The Norwegian currently leads the Champions League goalscorer list with 10 goals.

In the English Premier League this year they are not the hunted at the top of the table, but the first pursuer. After 28 games, they are 8 points behind Arsenal, who are currently leading the table.With a game less they can shorten the gap a bit, but they are not the favorite for the championship title this year. However, this is primarily due to the weak away balance where they could only win 8 of 14 games this year. At home at the Etihad Stadium, on the other hand, they won 12 of 14 games and have the best offensive with 47 goals. In general, Pep Guardiola's team can take first place in the offensive table. In 28 games they have already scored 71 goals. Erling Haaland alone has 28 goals in the league. They have all won the last 4 league games, scoring a strong 11 goals.

There is currently not a single player in the Manchester City squad who is injured. Erling Haaland has been injured again and again in recent weeks, but should be able to play in the game against Bayern. Along with Kevin de Bruyne and Jack Grealish, he is probably one of the most in-form players in the squad at the moment. As so often, Guardiola likes to rotate on the defensive. Newcomer Manuel Akanji seems to have earned a regular place in the meantime. In the last few games he formed a back three with Nathan Ake and Ruben Dias. Before that, the Spaniard Rodri clears away everything that poses a threat to the opponent. It's hard to beat this side on a good day, but as so often, the Champions League has its own rules.

How good are Bayern really?

Things have been going haywire at Bayern in the last few weeks. Trainer Julian Nagelsmann was surprisingly dismissed for many, which also has to do with the fact that Thomas Tuchel, Bayern's absolute dream coach, was free. He then took over just one day later and led the team to a 4-2 home win against Borussia Dortmund . Bayern had regained the lead in the table and the momentum was clearly on their side. Nevertheless, they had to admit defeat to SC Freiburg in the DFB Cup. For the 3rd time in a row they were eliminated early in the cup. The big dream of a triple has thus burst.

Probably the best players this season were delivered by FC Bayern Munich in the premier class. Although they were there in a group with Inter Milan and FC Barcelona they could win all 6 group games. The goal difference was an outstanding 18-2 goals. That's an average of 3.00 goals per game. The only two goals they conceded actually came against Viktoria Pilsen. In the games against FC Barcelona and Inter Milan, on the other hand, they did not concede a goal. Away they are after 3 wins with a goal difference of 9-2 goals. In the round of 16 they had a real top team as opponents in Paris St. Germain. The two games were close, but in the end Bayern won 3-0 against Paris. Away they celebrated a narrow 0:1 success. In total, Bayern have not conceded a goal for four Champions League games.

With the win against Dortmund, Bayern are back in first place in the Bundesliga. However, their lead is only two points. While they’re still unbeaten at home, it's a little harder when they’re away. Although they are also in 1st place in the away table, they only won 7 of 13 games. The remaining 6 games ended with 3 draws and 3 defeats. The goal ratio of 33-16 goals is very good, especially offensively. Defensively, however, this can be expanded, after all, they allow more than one goal per away game. The last away game so far was lost 2-1 against Leverkusen. It was the 2nd defeat in the last 3 games.

The first game went very well, but the game against Freiburg was very difficult. The conversion of chances in particular was a problem. Bayern are missing a real goalscorer this season . Newcomer Sadio Mane's slump in form is one reason for this. With 11 goals, Jamal Musiala remains the top scorer in the team. Under Thomas Tuchel, however, he was on the bench for the second time in a row. The line of defense seems to have settled in at the moment, even if new signing Joao Cancelo is pushing more and more into the starting XI. This time Eric Maxim Choupo Moting could not be the front runner, but Bayern should be looking for a slightly faster player to counterattack.

Manchester City - Bayern Munich: What to expect? 

Manchester City have scored 33 goals in their last 10 games. FC Bayern, on the other hand, scored 22 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 18.5, the teams averaged 5.5 goals per game. Both teams scored in 100% of games on average. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.

It is a duel between two teams that are among the absolute top favorites for the title. In such a game, it very often depends on the condition of the day, which is why we would advise against a win bet. The two teams clearly have the greatest quality on the offensive. City almost always scores in their own stadium. Bayern will probably also go for a goal to at least get the draw. Our tip recommendation therefore: Both teams score YES. As a risk variant, we would recommend a tip X here .

• Both Team To Score
• Draw (X)

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.