Can Dortmund keep their first leg advantage?

BVB narrowly won 1-0 in the first leg at Signal Iduna Park, giving them a small lead going into the second leg. Chelsea are still far from their best form but still managed to get a win on the last day of the game in England. Despite the form crisis, the Blues are surprisingly the clear favorites in this game. 

With 10 wins in a row, BVB set a new club record and celebrated the best start to a year that one can imagine. In the Bundesliga they are now level on points with Bayern and in the Champions League after a 1-0 win in the first leg they have a good chance of reaching the quarter-finals. However, Chelsea FC is a strong opponent who probably has an even higher quality in the squad. 

On the other hand, the Blues have been in a real crisis of form for weeks and are far behind their own expectations in England. Now the end of the Champions League is threatening. A win in the Premier League at the weekend gave them some confidence again, but they're not the clear favorites for us in this game.

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Chelsea’s last title hope is the Champions League

It is currently hard to imagine that Chelsea FC will win another title this season. In England they were eliminated from both cup competitions and in the Premier League they are only 10th and will probably miss out on the Champions League places. The last and only chance for a title is therefore the premier class. But here too they have their back to the wall, because the round of 16 first leg against Dortmund was lost 1-0. So they have to catch up from a deficit and that with an offensive that has only scored one goal in the last 4 games. Coach Graham Potter is still not up for debate and is still getting time from the board.

Chelsea spent more than €200 million on new signings this winter. So far, however, hardly anyone has been able to really convince. In the line-up on the last matchday there were only 2 winter newcomers in the starting XI. Enzo Fernandez is placed in central midfield, but he is rarely able to convince. Joao Felix has scored one goal for his new employer so far. Mykhaylo Mudryk is still without a goal and was on the bench for more than 90 minutes on the last matchday. So far, Noni Madueke has also hardly been a factor. With Reece James, Thiago Silva, Mason Mount and Christian Pulisic, 5 players are currently out due to injury. 

The big weakness under Graham Potter so far is the offensive game. In 27 competitive games under his leadership, the team scored just 26 goals and thus less than 1.00 goals per game. This hasn't gotten much better in the last few weeks, as they went 3 games in a row without a goal before beating Leeds 1-0 on the last matchday. In the last 7 games only 3 goals were scored and 4 times they were without a goal.The last time Chelsea scored more than a goal per game was in December 2022 in a 2-0 win over Bournemouth. The Blues games also end with correspondingly few goals. The last 8 games have all ended with less than 2.5 goals. In their own stadium, even 5 games in a row ended with less than 1.5 goals.

In order to be represented in the Champions League next season, Chelsea will have to win it this year. In the Premier League it is almost impossible that they will still reach a top 4 place. The gap to them is already 11 points. Chelsea is only 10th in the table and has a balanced record of 9 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. In addition, Chelsea has the 6th worst defense in the league.In 25 games this season, they scored just 24 goals. At least 6 of 12 games were won at home at Stamford Bridge and only 3 times they had to admit defeat at home. With only 8 goals against, they even have the best defense of all teams here. Only once did the side concede more than one goal at home and that was on Matchday 2 against Tottenham.

Borussia Dortmund is in top form

What Dortmund shows in 2023 is impressive. The team has won all games so far this year and has 10 wins in a row. Edin Terzic has set a new club record. They could also win the top game last weekend against Leipzig. In the Bundesliga they are still level on points behind Bayern in second place in the table . They conceded the last defeat in mid-November against Gladbach when they had to admit defeat 4:2. Now the focus is entirely on the Champions League. They may be the underdogs there in the game against Chelsea, but with a 1-0 lead up their sleeves, they naturally want to make it into the quarter-finals.

Dortmund manages to convince both offensively and defensively this year. In the past 9 games they never conceded more than one goal and managed to keep clean sheets four times. In addition, at least 2 goals have been scored in 8 of the last 10 games. Three times they managed to score 4 goals or more! One of the outstanding players is Julian Brandt, who is the top scorer in the team with 8 goals.

However, some offensive players are currently out due to injury such as Karim Adeyemi and Yousouffa Moukoko. Donyell Malen and Julien Duranville are also unavailable to coach Edin Terzic. Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel is doubtful for the game against Chelsea. He already missed the game against Leipzig due to muscular problems. There won't be too much rotation in the game against Chelsea either, after all the team is working very well at the moment. Marco Reus will lead his club onto the field as captain.

Last season, BVB was eliminated in the group phase. A year earlier they made it to the quarter-finals, but were beaten by Manchester City. For Dortmund it was the only quarter-final appereance in the past 6 years. The last time they made it to the quarter-finals of the premier class was in the 2016/17 season. This success could be repeated this year. And they know well that the last time they got through the quarterfinals, they reached the final where they lost against Bayern Munich (2012).

In 33 competitive games under Edin Terzic, the team suffered 7 defeats. The team conceded 6 of these 7 defeats in away games. Among other things, they lost to Gladbach, Wolfsburg or Manchester City. The last away defeat came in mid-November against Gladbach. Since the winter break they have all won their 5 away games . They have not conceded a goal in 3 of their last 5 away games, while 4 times they scored at least twice. The last away game so far was won 0-1 against Hoffenheim. It was Terzic's 22nd win in 33 games this season.

Chelsea - Borussia Dortmund: What to expect? 

Chelsea have scored 4 goals in their last 10 games. In contrast, Dortmund scored 25 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 5.0, the teams averaged 2.9 goals per game. Both teams scored in an average of 70% of the games. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.

Despite last weekend's win, Chelsea remain in a slump in form and are simply struggling under Graham Potter. Dortmund, on the other hand, is the hottest team in Europe and recently celebrated 11 wins in a row. The odds come as a bit of a surprise to us. For a double chance X/2 you still get odds close to 2.00. As an alternative, we would recommend an over/under bet. Chelsea hardly scores goals, but they hardly concede goals either. We therefore expect a game with few goals. For Under 2.5 goals, the odds are still attractive.

• Borussia Dortmund not to lose - Double Chance X2
• Under 2.5

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.