Can the Bulls surprise against the Citizens?
RB Leipzig will face Manchester City in the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League. The English are seen by the bookies as the top favorite for the crown of Europe, so the guests also have an advantage in the odds in this first leg.
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RB Leipzig analysis
RasenBallsport Leipzig is in good shape before the duel with ManCity. Marco Rose's team has only lost once in the past 20 competitive games. RB Leipzig had an extremely positive rehearsal last weekend with a 3-0 win in Wolfsburg. In the Bundesliga, the Saxons are 5th, but only 4 points behind the leading FC Bayern and only 1 point behind the top-4. The Bulls are still favorites to finish in a Champions League spot.
The Leipzig team only suffered 2 home defeats this season, but in the end they had to bow down in front of their own audience despite being in the lead at Union Berlin. This ended a run of 11 unbeaten home appearances, RBL won 2 of the last 3 matches at home. In the last 5 home games, 10 goals were achieved , but both teams also scored goals. In 5 of the last 6 competitive games, Leipzig scored the first goal, which just as often resulted in a break lead.
Under Rose, the Saxons have won 16 games, drawn 4 and lost only 3 in 23 competitive games since September . In doing so, they scored a strong 56 goals with only 23 goals conceded. The Bulls only allow an average of 1.0 goals per game and score a goal average of over 2.0 themselves. In 17 games under the Leipzig native, the Bulls have already scored more than 1.5 goals and have not conceded a goal in 8 matches. In return, they only stayed goalless 3x and had to accept 6 times over 1.5 goals. Both teams scored in 13 of the 23 games, so there were 17 times over 2.5 and 11 times over 3.5 goals in Leipzig games.
Leipzig wants to qualify into the quarterfinals for the second time in their history, since back in 2020 they were even among the last 4 in Europe. Last year the Bulls reached the semi-finals of the Europa League – after winning at home they missed out on a what would have been an all-German final, with a defeat against Rangers in Glasgow.
Leipzig reached the knockout stage of the premier class as second in the group behind Real Madrid. The Saxons relegated Donetsk and Celtic to the places, won 4 of the 6 group games with 2 defeats. RB lost the first two matches at home against Donetsk (1:4) and in Madrid (0:2), but won the following 4 games . So the Bulls defeated both Celtic and Real at home.
In the first two group games they managed only 1 goal, but in the last 4 games the Leipzig team scored over 1.5 goals. In 2 preliminary round games, the Saxons kept the back zero, but in 3 games there were double goals. In 3 matches not both teams scored, but 4 times over 3.5 goals were scored. In the last 4 games, the Bulls only conceded 1 goal before the break and did not give up the 2nd round.
Manchester City analysis
Manchester City are struggling a bit with form ahead of Champions League knockouts. At the weekend, the Skyblues had to settle for a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest and lost sight of the lead in the Premier League again. With a game more, Pep Gurdiola's side are second in the English Championship, 2 points behind Arsenal. The Citizens now want to do justice to the role of favorites in the premier class and present them in Leipzig.
Man City have only given up one of their last 7 competitive games and have been unbeaten in their last 3 matches with 2 wins. In the last 5 away games, however, only 1 was a complete success , and the northern English team had to admit defeat 3 times abroad. The Skyblues have conceded goals in the last 4 competitive games and in the last 5 away games and according to our forecast this will also happen in Leipzig. But the Guardiola team also scored the 1st goal in 5 of the last 6 games, so they were more likely to give up the 2nd round.
Manchester City want to reach the Champions League quarter-finals for the 5th time in a row. The English were last eliminated 5 years ago in the round of 16 (against Monaco). The Skyblues made it to the final in 2021, last year it was the final stop against Real in the semifinals. In the past 8 years, the Citizens have only been eliminated before the quarterfinals once . This season, Pep Guardiola's team is once again the favorite for the handle pot, with odds of under 3.00.
ManCity was group winner ahead of BVB and Sevilla. The North English remained undefeated with 4 wins in 6 preliminary round games and only conceded 2 goals. In Copenhagen and Dortmund, the Skyblues did not get beyond goalless draws. The only away win came at the start of the group stage in Seville - but without conceding a goal. City didn't concede a goal in 3 guest appearances.
Both teams only scored in 2 preliminary round games - but 4x over 2.5 and 3x more than 3.5 goals were scored. City scored more than 2.5 and 2x 3.5 goals in 4 group games, but also remained goalless twice. On the other hand, the Guardiola team conceded less than 1.5 goals in all 6 preliminary round games and kept 4 clean sheets. In 5 games the English didn't concede a goal before the break and in 4 matches they won the second 45 minutes.
RB Leipzig - Manchester City: What to expect?
In the pre-season there was this pairing twice in the group stage of the Champions League. The home team could always win. City won spectacularly 6-3, Leipzig retaliated three months later with a 2-1 win. Both teams were able to score in both encounters and more than 2.5 goals were scored in each case . In both comparisons, the home team scored twice, but the guest also scored.
In both meetings, the home team led at the break. ManCity only gave up one half of the game and won both halves at home. In the coaching duel it is 2-0 for Guardiola. Rose also lost his first two matches against Man City. The Spaniard's record against RB is balanced - 1 win and 1 loss against Leipzig.
ManCity couldn't get more than a draw at Nottingham, RB have only lost twice at home this season. Therefore, we trust the Leipzigers at least the draw. In the first two H2H comparisons both teams scored. We trust the two clubs in the first leg of this round of 16. So we're expecting a game with more goals - that was also the case in the first two direct duels.
- Double Chance 1X
- Both Teams To Score
- Over 2.5
* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.