Can Schalke stop Dortmund in the Ruhrpott derby

On Saturday it's that time again, the world-famous Ruhrpott Derby is just around the corner. The encounter between Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund fascinates and has kept fans in front of the television for a long time. The hosts from Gelsenkirchen have the opportunity to trip their eternal rival from Dortmund on their way to the Bundesliga title at home.  The guests from Dortmund are still seen as the clear favorites and have a clearly better starting position. There is a lot at stake for both teams and this makes the game even more exciting.

Rarely in recent years has the Bundesliga been as exciting as it is this season. Normally, Bayern Munich was able to break away and almost secure the championship. But currently everything is still open. The typical pursuers and part of our analysis Borussia Dortmund have the same number of points as the league leaders from Munich.Only the goal difference separates the two teams. Union Berlin is in third place, five points behind. 

The remaining European places are captured by RB Leipzig, Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt. This means that the top six teams all still have a chance of getting the four spots that qualify for the Champions League. At the other end of the table, the situation is similarly exciting. Four teams are tied at the bottom of the table and VfL Bochum is at the bottom. Schalke 04 is in seventeenth place, fighting their way up again lately. 

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Schalke just returned to the top flight, but still in danger

The Gelsenkircheners have been an integral part of the first German league for many years. Only last year they had to play in the 2nd Bundesliga since they were relegated the season before last. They played a convincing season there and were able to secure the championship in the second Bundesliga. 

They started the current Bundesliga season as champions and full of self-confidence. Unfortunately, it quickly became apparent that success could not last long. For a long time, they were even considered an almost guaranteed relegation candidate because they could only call up poor performance. If they were relegated straight back to the 2nd Bundesliga, that would be a huge disappointment.

But even if they were considered the weakest team in the entire league for a long time, they have been able to fight back in recent weeks. For a long time they were on the last place in the table with a decent distance of points, even on the penultimate. In the past few days, however, they have fought their way out of the danger zone. 

They are still in 17th place in the table, a relegation place, but at least they are now level on points with the other opponents, who are also playing against relegation. Should we be able to maintain the direction of the last few weeks, we certainly believe that FC Schalke 04 can stay up in the league.

The hosts from Gelsenkirchen were in surprisingly good form recently. Of course we have different standards here than at Borussia Dortmund, for example, but Schalke 04 were still able to impress. They have been unbeaten in six games. This series started with four consecutive draws. One of these draws could even be achieved against third-placed Union Berlin. This was followed by two wins in the last two games. 
Against the two teams Stuttgart and Bochum, who were also threatened with relegation, they were able to secure the full three points. It is pleasing that they could not only collect the points themselves, but also guaranteed that their direct opponents would not get any points.This good series ensured that for the first time since the eleventh matchday they are not on the last place in the table.

Borussia Dortmund fighting for the title

For the third time in a row, the team recently made it into the top 7 of the Spanish Primera Division. This also qualified them for the third time in a row for the UEFA Europa League. In the past two years, however, they were eliminated in the intermediate round. With Manchester United and RB Leipzig, they also had very difficult opponents.

 In this season they could secure the 1st place in a group with Manchester United, so they only get into the round of 16. Things are going similarly well in the league, because here they are in 4th place.They would be represented in next season's UEFA Champions League. But they no longer have title chances in the league, these are probably a lot higher in the Europa League.

Just like the opponents for the game on Saturday, Dortmund can show a very good form. They are aware that the season can be a success and they play well accordingly. They haven't lost a single time in their last five games. It must be noted, however, that with the exception of Chelsea and RB Leipzig, the opponents were not rated as particularly strong. They haven't really been able to convince against the other top teams in the Bundesliga so far.

Borussia's injury problems are causing concern at the moment. They have to do without five players who are listed as injured. They have to do without regular goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, who will be out for an indefinite period due to muscular problems. Mateu Morey Bauzà is also out on the defensive. The offensive in particular is suffering from the current injury concerns. Left winger Donyell Malen (ankle problem), Julien Duranville (muscle tear) and Youssoufa Moukoko (synthetic ligament tear) are all unlikely to be available on Saturday.

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In recent years, Dortmund has been seen as the clearly better team. Again and again they could assert themselves with a win. But there have been times when the roles have been reversed. Especially in the period from 2017 to 2019, Schalke 04 was able to win a few games or force a draw. They lost the first leg away to Dortmund 1-0. Everything indicates that Dortmund's winning streak will continue at least this year.

FC Schalke 04 have scored 6 goals in their last 10 games. In contrast, Dortmund scored 21 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 4.0, the teams averaged 2.7 goals per game. Therefore we recommend Under 3.5 goals or Over 2.5 goals as likely variants. Both teams scored in an average of 65% of games. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.

• Borussia Dortmund to win
• Over 2.5 goals

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.