The 2020 Champions League final rematch
In the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League, there is a cracker between Paris Saint-Germain and FC Bayern Munich. The Nagelsmann team warmed up against Bochum at the weekend while PSG are struggling with injury problems.
Paris Saint-Germain does not go into the encounter with Bayern with good signs. PSG has already lost 4x this calendar year in wins and draws. In addition, Kylian Mbappé is injured and Lionel Messi and Marco Verrati are questionable for the first leg . Coach Christophe Galtier's team lost the last two competitive games – in the Coupe de France against Marseille and in the league in Monaco.
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Paris Saint-Germain analysis
Paris Saint-Germain leads the domestic Ligue 1 but the lead over closest pursuer Marseille has shrunk to 5 points. The 11th title in France beckons and PSG would be the French record champion. It would be the 9th championship in the past 11 years, the 2nd in a row. Now the French finally want to succeed in the Champions League. Reaching the final once, back in 2020 is not enough for the owners.
Despite the Qataris investing endless amounts of money, PSG is still waiting for their first Champions League title. In 2020, the French were very close but lost the final against Bayern. In 4 of the last 6 years, however, they have already reached the round of 16 , including in the previous season against eventual winners Real Madrid – despite a 1-0 win in the first leg. In the last 10 years, the semi-finals of the premier class have only jumped out twice. This time, too, there is a risk of premature failure.
PSG didn't give Juventus a chance twice in the preliminary round and was able to keep the Italians behind them. There were no difficulties against Maccabi Haifa either. Against Benfica, however, the French did not get more than a 1-1 draw on both occasions and so they had to give way to the Portuguese and only progressed as group runners-up.
PSG conceded goals in each of the 6 preliminary round games . The French are the only team in the premier league round of 16 that haven't kept a clean sheet in their first 6 games. The Parisians also scored in all 6 group games, in 4 matches they scored at least twice . Both teams have scored in PSG's last 5 competitive games, and over 2.5 goals have been scored in 6 of the last 7 games.
Bayern Munich analysis
FC Bayern is in very good form going into the round of 16 in the Champions League, Munich are going for the next title in the premier class this season after 2 years. Julian Nagelsmann's team has remained undefeated in the past 19 competitive games and won the last 3 games . The omens for the first leg in Paris have turned, FCB is now the (slight) favorite for the away win.
Bayern have been unbeaten in 10 away games , won their last two away games – in Mainz and Wolfsburg – and scored 4 goals each. The last away bankruptcy was in the Bundesliga in Augsburg. But this is the only away defeat this season for Munich.
FCB recently defended their lead in the Bundesliga , 1 point ahead of Union Berlin. For Bayern it is about the 11th championship in a row, the 33rd in the club's history. While the title in the Bundesliga is almost a must, the Munich team want to take the crown in Europe again this season. Bayern would like to reach at least the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the fourth time in a row .
Bayern have been waiting for their 7th title in the UEFA Champions League since 2020. In the past two years, the Munich team was eliminated in the quarter-finals, but surprisingly against Villarreal in the pre-season. In the last 9 years, FCB has reached the quarter-finals 8 times and only dropped out once in the round of 16 (2019). For the betting providers, Bayern are the second contender to win the handle pot with odds of 6.50 behind the big favorites ManCity (2.85).
The Bavarians were extremely sovereign in the group phase and won all 6 preliminary round games. The Munich team scored 18 goals, an average of 3.0 per game, and only allowed 2 goals in total. In 5 group games, the Nagelsmann-team remained without a goal , including 2 away games. The Munich team was able to win the guest appearances at Inter and Barca with zero.
The Nagelsmann-team scored at least twice in all 6 preliminary round games and only conceded a goal in one game. Bayern have scored the first goal of the game in 9 of the last 10 competitive games, meaning they have gone into the break in 5 of the last 6 games with a lead. In the Champions League, Bayern didn't concede a goal in the first 45 minutes and were leading in 5 games at half-time . They won both halves of the game in 4 CL games.
PSG - Bayern Munich: What to expect?
In the past 10 direct duels, both clubs have won 5 times each - so there have been no draws during this time. In the most recent two encounters, which took place two years ago, the visiting team prevailed . PSG was able to throw Bayern out of the quarter-finals of the premier class. In 2020, the Munich team still won the final.
Bayern won the last two guest appearances in the French capital – each time 1-0. In the 3 encounters in Paris before that, PSG won. In 5 of the last 7 direct duels, both teams did not score. That was also the case in the last two clashes in Paris. Bayern have scored in the last 4 games and twice kept a clean sheet.
After our comprehensive analysis, we predict that Bayern will not lose this game. The Munich guests are in the lead after 45 minutes. After the change of sides, PSG can equalize as much as possible. Bayern could even win this encounter with zero.
- Double Chance X2
- Bayern to win to nil (risk)
- Bayern to win first half (risk)
* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.