Semi-final first leg between Real Madrid and Barcelona
El Clasico in Spain on Thursday! Real Madrid and FC Barcelona meet in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey. It is the first of a total of 2 semi-final games. As is usually the case, there is no clear favorite, the two teams are simply too good for that.
Real Madrid knows how to convince once again this year, especially in the Champions League and FC Barcelona is clearly ahead in the Primera Division. In the Copa del Rey we expect a balanced game that will probably only be decided in the second leg in Barcelona. While Barca could probably live with a draw, Real Madrid obviously want to win at home.
In the Copa del Rey, the semifinals see the hit game between Real Madrid and FC Barcelona. For many, this is already the early final, after all, Table 1.- meets Table 2.-. In the first leg it's all about creating a good starting position. Due to the home advantage, the Whites are slightly favored.
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Real Madrid is stronger internationally than in Spain
The Royals also know how to convince internationally this season. In the Champions League, they are not only the reigning champions, they are again confidently in the round of 16 this year. There they celebrated a 2-5 away win at Liverpool FC in the first leg. The quarter-finals therefore seem as good as certain. Things haven't been going quite so well in the Spanish league so far, because they're "only" second in the table.
The gap to FC Barcelona is already 7 points. However, this is also due to the very good season of the Blaugrana, because Real's record with 16 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats is anything but bad. Now they also meet in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey. There, the royals have not made it to the final for almost 10 years. The competition is therefore not exactly the big favorite of the Galacticos.
They haven't covered themselves in glory this year either, but at least they've won the previous 3 games in the Copa del Rey. In the sixteenth final, they narrowly beat the lower-class club Cacereno with 0:1. In the round of 16, Villarreal was their first real opponent. In this game they had their problems, but in the end they won 2-3. In the quarterfinals there was a Madrid derby against Atletico. In this game they showed their best performance to date and got a 3-1. Incidentally, Osasuna or Athletic Bilbao would be waiting in a possible final.
One of the many strengths this season are the home games. In Spain, the team is still unbeaten in their own stadium. They have played 11 home games in the league so far, winning 7 and drawing 4 more. This puts them back in second place behind FC Barcelona. Along with the Blaugrana, they are also the only team that hasn't lost at home yet. They are also the clear number 2 when it comes to goal difference.
With 23 goals, they only scored one goal less than their opponents.The team also only conceded 8 goals in 11 games and thus significantly less than one goal per game. The last home game so far ended against Atletico Madrid with a 1-1. Before that they stayed 3 home games in a row without conceding a goal.
Real Madrid will have to do without their defense chief David Alaba in the next few weeks. The Austrian has picked up a hamstring injury and will miss the game against FC Barcelona. It is already the 2nd important failure on the defensive, because Ferland Mendy is also still absent.
Apart from these two absences, Rodrygo is also missing at the moment. However, the Brazilian is likely to start training again in a few days. The two top scorers Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior, on the other hand, are fit and ready to play. After the 1-1 in the league against Atletico Madrid, coach Carlo Ancelotti could change one or the other position.
Barcelona analysis
It's going the other way around at Barcelona this season. The guests have played everything in Spain so far and have already been eliminated internationally. In addition to the championship, the Copa del Rey is the last chance for a title this season. The last time they were crowned Spanish Cup winners was in the 2020/21 season.
Last season they were eliminated by Athletic Bilbao in the round of 16. They could meet them again this year in a possible final. For Barcelona, the main thing in the first leg is to create a good starting position. The first away game against Real Madrid this season was lost 3-1. One would like to avoid such a result, but one would probably be quite satisfied with a draw.
It is of course THE duel in Spain. The El Clasico takes place at least 2 times a year, this year it will take place at least 4 times. The royals won the first duel this season in the league quite clearly with 3:1. In the Supercopa on January 15, 2023, however, FC Barcelona prevailed 1-3.
For the guests it was the 2nd victory in the last 3 duels.Before these victories, however, the Blaugrana had gone 6 games in a row without a win. One thing seems certain in this duel and these are goals. 7th time in a row more than 2.5 goals were scored here and 5th time even more than 3.5 goals. Only once did Real Madrid prevail without conceding a goal. In subsequent games, goals were always scored by both sides.
One of the success factors this season is clearly the defensive. Barcelona have only conceded 8 goals in 23 league games so far, 10 fewer than any other team! While they only had to concede a single goal in 11 home games, there are at least 7 goals in 12 away games. But even with this value they are the clear number 1 in the league.In 17 of 23 league games they managed to keep a clean sheet – an absolute top value. After 3 wins to zero in a row, they suffered a surprising 1-0 defeat against Almeria on the last day of the game. For Barcelona it was the first defeat in the league since October 9, 2022 when they lost to Real Madrid.
On the offensive one is mainly dependent on Robert Lewandowski this season. The Pole has scored no fewer than 25 goals in his 31 competitive games so far and prepared 6 more. He was therefore directly involved in a goal in every game. In the league, he clearly leads the scorers list with 15 goals.
In all probability, he will miss the game against Real Madrid with a hamstring injury.Other attacking forces like Ansu Fati and Ousmane Dembele are also currently unavailable to coach Xavi. The 2nd-top scorer in the team Pedri will also miss the game. The club has to be creative on the offensive. This is also an indication that Barcelona have to rely primarily on a good defense in this game.
Real Madrid - Barcelona: What to expect?
Real Madrid have scored 20 goals in their last 10 games. FC Barcelona, on the other hand, scored 14 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 10.5, the teams averaged 3.4 goals per game. Therefore we recommend Under 3.5 goals or Over 2.5 goals as likely variants. Both teams scored in 85% of games on average. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.
Real Madrid have the home field advantage and are unbeaten at home this year. Barcelona also have to do without some top performers, especially on the offensive. We therefore rate the home team a little better and would place a draw no bet bet 1.
An over/under bet is difficult to predict, but due to the many absentees at Barcelona we would rather bet on under 2.5 goals. Barcelona would probably be very happy with a 0-0 or 1-1 away game.
- Real Madrid to win or draw (1 DNB)
- Both teams to score
- Under 3.5
* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.