First leg between AS Roma and Real Sociedad

It's probably one of the top games in the round of 16 of the UEFA Europa League. AS Roma meets Real Sociedad. Both teams are currently in the Champions League in their respective leagues and are having a correspondingly strong season. Due to home advantage, the Romans are slightly favored in this game.

Last season Jose Mourinho and AS Roma clinched the Europa Conference League title. This year they are one of the favorites for the title in the Europa League. Should they succeed, it would put their name in the history books. However, the season of the Romans allows this, because they are also in a good 4th place in Serie A and thus within the Champions League places. 

But the same goes for their opponent as Real Sociedad is currently 4th in Spain. The guests have been able to develop strongly in recent years and they can definitely be counted among the extended circle of favorites. In the duel against AS Roma, however, they are the slight underdogs.

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Roma boosted after victory over Juventus

AS Roma will go into the round of 16 first leg against Real Sociedad with confidence, after all they celebrated a home win against Juventus Turin last weekend. With this victory, they climbed back into the top 4 in the table, which means that they currently claim a place in the Champions League. With the Europa Conference League title, they are even the defending international champion. In the Europa League they are also one of the favorites, even if teams like Arsenal or Manchester United are probably one step higher. With Jose Mourinho they have a coach who almost always knows how to convince internationally and can already call a few titles his own.

Roma have a very clear goal this year and that is to be in the UEFA Champions League next season. After getting into a good starting position in the league, the goal there is clearly a top 4 place. The double burden was not easy for them in autumn, because in the Europa League they only just secured second place in group C. In the end, Betis Sevilla were missing a whole 6 points and promotion was only fixed on the last day of the game. They also struggled in the sixteenth final, because after a 1-0 defeat in Salzburg, they only just managed to win 2-0 at home. However, the further the team gets, the more seriously they will take the competition.

The hosts have already suffered 3 home defeats in 12 games this year, because they could set a new record. They haven't conceded a goal for 5 home games in Serie A. Should they succeed in doing so in the next two league games, a new club record would be set. It is therefore not surprising that Roma have the best home defense in Italy, conceding just 5 goals in total. They were therefore able to win 8 of 12 home games, most recently they had 5 home wins in a row.On the last matchday they defeated Juventus Turin 1-0. At the same time, this was the 8th home game in a row in the league that ended with fewer than 2.5 goals. Overall, Roma only managed 14 goals in 12 home games this year.

As briefly mentioned above, Rome are not scoring very many goals this year. In Serie A they have just 32 goals after 25 games. This is the 3rd worst value in the upper half of the table. Newcomer Paulo Dybala is all the more important. With 8 goals and 7 assists, the world champion is life insurance on the offensive this year. Apart from Tammy Abraham, no other player in the Roman squad has more than 3 goals under his belt. On the offensive, coach Jose Mourinho can still draw on the full. After the 1:0 win against Juventus Turin we don't expect big changes. Players like Tammy Abraham or Andrea Belotti should only come off the bench again.

Is Real Sociedad a top team? Time to prove it!

For the third time in a row, the team recently made it into the top 7 of the Spanish Primera Division. This also qualified them for the third time in a row for the UEFA Europa League. In the past two years, however, they were eliminated in the intermediate round. With Manchester United and RB Leipzig, they also had very difficult opponents. In this season they could secure the 1st place in a group with Manchester United, so they only get into the round of 16. Things are going similarly well in the league, because here they are in 4th place.They would be represented in next season's UEFA Champions League. But they no longer have title chances in the league, these are probably a lot higher in the Europa League.

We briefly covered Real Sociedad's market value above. With this they even provide a more valuable team than AS Roma. No fewer than 5 players have a market value of at least €30 million. Real Sociedad can therefore definitely be regarded as a top team, and they have shown this once again this year with strong performances. In addition, there is Imanol Alguacil, a coach who has been on the sidelines since 2018 and has already rejected some requests from the Premier League. They are just one point behind 3rd-placed Atletico Madrid. In the cup they had to admit defeat to FC Barcelona. Nevertheless, San Sebastian must now be regarded as a top Spanish team.

One of the few reasons that speaks against the guests is the current form. In the last few weeks they don't show the achievements they are able to show. They have been without a win for 3 games. They have only won one game in their last 7 games and that was away to Espanyol Barcelona. 3 of the last 7 games were lost, each of these games was lost by a narrow 1:0. The problem is clearly the offensive. In these last 7 games they have only scored 4 goals. In 5 games they even remained completely without conceding a goal. Six times a game ended with less than 2.5 goals. After all, they managed to get a 0-0 away draw at Real Madrid during this period.

The team has to do without an important player on the offensive. However, Umar Sadiq has been absent for a long time, having suffered a cruciate ligament rupture. Alexander Sörloth was able to fulfill his role very well, after all the Norwegian is the top scorer in San Sebastian with 9 goals. Captain Mikel Oyarzabal is set, but is not playing his best season this year and only has 2 goals this season. Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendi are seeded in the center. The two Spaniards are the best players in recent weeks. After a 0-0 draw against Cadiz at the weekend, there could well be one or the other adjustment.

Roma - Real Sociedad: What to expect? 

AS Roma have scored 12 goals in their last 10 games. In contrast, Real Sociedad have scored 10 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 3.5, the teams averaged 2.2 goals per game. Therefore we recommend Under 2.5 goals or Over 2.5 goals as likely variants. Both teams scored in an average of 70% of the games. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.

• Roma not to lose (1 DNB, or 1X double chance)
• Under 2.5 goals

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.