City under Leipzig pressure
The Citizens are once again among the big favorites for the UEFA Champions League title this year. An elimination in the round of 16 would therefore be a big disappointment. The first leg in Leipzig only ended 1-1, which is why they absolutely need a win at home. City are the clear favorites, but Leipzig is anything but to be underestimated and definitely good for a surprise.
The hosts have always made it to at least the quarter-finals of the premier class since 2018. Although they are among the big favorites almost every year, they have so far been denied the title. This year the next attempt is to be made with Erling Haaland, but with RB Leipzig they already have a tough opponent in the round of 16. This was already evident in the first leg, which only ended 1-1.
The pressure is therefore clearly on the side of the English, because elimination in the round of 16 would be a disaster. For Leipzig, on the other hand, it would not be an embarrassment to be eliminated against City. With the performances of the last few weeks, they also have a good chance of surviving in Manchester, even if they play the outsider role here, of course.
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Manchester City in the Champions League
Manchester City has been one of the best teams in Europe for years and has possibly the best coach in the world on the sidelines in Pep Guardiola. Despite this fact, the team has not yet managed to bring the coveted Champions League title to Manchester. Since 2016, they only made it past the quarterfinals twice. In 2021, Chelsea lost 1-0 in the final.
Last season ended in the semifinals against Real Madrid. This year they already have to overcome a difficult hurdle in the round of sixteen. After a 1-1 draw in Leipzig, they urgently need a win at home. Leipzig is no stranger to this, after all, they have already beaten Real Madrid in the group stage this year.
In the group phase, the club won relatively confidently ahead of Borussia Dortmund and FC Sevilla. After 6 matchdays they had 14 points and remained undefeated. Away there were two draws against FC Copenhagen and Borussia Dortmund. On the other hand, they could all win their 3 home games and scored a strong 10 goals. But they allowed a goal in 2 of 3 home games. With only 2 goals conceded in 6 group games, they were still very stable here. Erling Haaland was also one of the top scorers with his 5 goals. In the first leg against Leipzig, however, Riyad Mahrez scored the goal for City.
The club also plays an unusual role in the Premier League. There they are currently only in 2nd place and are therefore in the role of the hunter. Arsenal are already 5 points ahead of them, so they can't afford to slip up. Recently this was not the case either, because the last 3 league games could all be won. City also still have the best offense in the league. In 27 games they scored 67 times, which is 5 times more than the league leaders.
City is absolutely great at home games. The team is still ahead of the Gunners in the home table. They won 11 of 13 home games and only lost one. This was on matchday 16 against Brentford FC.They have been unbeaten in 5 home Premier League games , winning the last 4. In 2023 they were even able to win all 6 competitive games in their own stadium.
An advantage of City is certainly that no important player is currently missing from the squad. Erling Haaland will of course be seeded in the game against Leipzig, after all he is the top scorer in the team with 28 goals.Also on the last matchday in the Premier League he scored the important goal in a narrow 0:1 away win against Crystal Palace.
With Kevin de Bruyne he also has perhaps the best assistant in Europe on his side. Phil Foden has also regained momentum in recent weeks after his injury. The other offensive players, on the other hand, are not seeded, and coach Pep Guardiola keeps trying to rotate them. Captain Ilkay Gündogan will probably lead the team back onto the field. The German will probably leave the club at the end of the year.
RB Leipzig to rewrite history
RB Leipzig is in the Champions League for the 5th time this year. For the 3rd time they managed to get into the KO phase. For the last time in the 2020/21 season, they faced a real heavyweight in Liverpool FC. This is the case again this year, after all they are dueling here with the reigning English champions. The 1-1 in the first leg in Leipzig can therefore already be seen as a sense of achievement. Although it wouldn't be a shame for Leipzig to be eliminated in the round of 16, of course they also want to make it to the quarter-finals, especially after the good performance in the first leg. The quality to survive in Manchester is certainly there.
With Real Madrid they also had an overpowering opponent in the group stage. In the end they had to settle for second place. However, they were just a single point shy of Los Blancos. The home game against them could even be won 3:2. In general, performance has improved significantly since the change of coach. While they still lost the first two group games, 4 wins in a row followed. In total, they have now been unbeaten for 5 CL games. Leipzig was always able to mark at least one goal. Overall, after 7 games, they have a strong 14 goals and thus 2.00 per game. 10 goals are clearly too many for a top team. In Manchester it is important to be safe at the back.
One of the main reasons for Leipzig's strong season is coach Marco Rose. He took over the club from Domenico Tedesco in September and has only lost 4 games since then. He won 18 of the 27 games, giving him an average of 2.19 points. All defeats were against top teams like Real, Dortmund or Union Berlin. The last time they had to admit defeat away from Dortmund was on the 23rd matchday. They won their last competitive game against Gladbach 3-0 again. It was the 9th game under Rose that ended without conceding a goal. In general, the defensive is usually very good, because in 27 games they conceded just as many goals.
In the Bundesliga, too, we have been able to make up a lot of ground in the last few weeks and months. They are now in 3rd place behind Bayern and Dortmund. They have won 3 of the last 4 games. In 2023, only 2 out of 9 games were lost . In the home game against Bayern they got a 1-1 draw. However, Leipzig is still struggling away from home, because the record here is only 4 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats. After all, the goal difference is positive and stands at 21-19 goals. Offensively, this is something to be proud of, after all, only Bayern have scored more goals away from home.
The last game so far in the Bundesliga was won 3-0 against Gladbach. Timo Werner, Emil Forsberg and Josko Gvardiol were responsible for the goals. Dani Olmo made his comeback from injury. Christopher Nkunku will fail again. The Frenchman has to sit out with a hamstring injury. Coach Rose will therefore probably not rotate too much and build on a similar team..
Manchester City - RB Leipzig: What to expect?
Manchester City have scored 19 goals in their last 10 games. In contrast, RB Leipzig scored 20 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 12.0, the teams averaged 3.9 goals per game. Therefore we recommend Under 4.5 goals or Over 3.5 goals as likely variants. On average, both teams have scored in 90% of the games. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.
Manchester City could benefit from home advantage in this game as they are the best team in the Premier League at home. Leipzig is also having a hard time away from home this season. Due to the low odds, we would not advise for a home win. City will score at home and Leipzig will have to be more offensive afterwards. City's defense is not always solid this year either, Leipzig is always able to score a goal. While we believe both sides will score , we would also place an over/under bet on under 3.5 goals. In our opinion, a 2-1 victory for City would be quite possible.
- Both Teams To Score
- Under 3.5 goals
- Manchester City to win 2-1 (risk)
* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.