Favorite duel between Italy and England

In Group C of the European Championship qualifier, the roles are pretty clear, as Italy and England are the big favorites for the first two places. Behind them, Ukraine is most likely to be dangerous. There are no clear favorites in a direct duel, but a successful start would be extremely important, especially for Italy.

The Italians missed a World Cup for the second time in a row last summer. They feel much more comfortable in Europe, because Italy is the reigning European champion and is therefore starting the qualification as the defending champion. There they meet England, in a match between the 2 top teams in group C. 

Normally these two teams will make up the group victory, which is why the direct duel is enormously important. The English were beaten by the Italians in the final at Euro 2020. Now, of course, the Three Lions want revenge. The quality is certainly higher than that of the hosts, but this rarely means anything, especially in the national team.

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Italy starts the mission to defend their title

The Italians secured the European title in 2021, making them the reigning champions. In the final they defeated England of all places. The Three Lions are now also in the European Championship qualifier for 2024.Although the Italians are the reigning European champions, they are not in a good phase. The team fell into a hole after winning the title and even failed to qualify for last year's World Cup again. It was the second World Cup that Italy missed. As is so often the case, the Italians decided on a small upheaval. However, at the moment they also have the choice that other nations have. With a squad market value of just under €680 million, the squad is almost €400 million below the English squad.

Coach Roberto Mancini is still in office and gets the chance to push the upheaval. His first squad in 2023 is very young by Italian standards, with an average age of 26.5. With players like Giorgio Scalvini (19), Sandro Tonali (22), Simone Pafundi (17) and Wilfried Gnonto (19), some young stars were called up to the squad. At the same time, the coach has to accept one or the other failure. The storm center in particular is very thin after Giacomo Raspadori's injury. Here, too, Mateo Retegui, a debutant, was called up to the national team. Along with Gianluca Scamacca, he is the only true center-forward in the squad.

The national coach had to put up with a few setbacks recently, but the record under him is still impressive. His team won 37 of 57 games and only had to admit defeat 7 times.The last defeat so far came on November 20 in the last international match against Austria (2-0). Before this defeat they celebrated 3 wins in a row. In 2022, however, there were also sensitive defeats. The defeat against North Macedonia in the World Cup qualifiers should have stuck in everyone's memory. 

They also had no chance against Argentina (0:3) and Germany (2:5) and conceded a total of 8 goals! This is a lot because Italy have only conceded 43 goals in the last 57 games and thus significantly less than 1.00 goals conceded per game. Incidentally, Mancini's point average is currently 2.18 points per game.

England rarely bring their quality to the pitch

The English national team is currently the most valuable and nominally the best in the world. Especially on the offensive, one world-class player follows the other. No less than 5 players have a market value of €80 million or higher.Almost all players also act in the Premier League and therefore know each other quite well. Coach Gareth Southgate, on the other hand, is not without controversy. 

After the quarter-finals at the World Cup last summer, many experts called for a resignation. However, Southgate still gets the chance. However, the results need to get better as they have only won 3 out of the last 12 games. If they start the year with a defeat again, the critical voices will certainly not decrease.

England ended 2022 by losing to France at the World Cup. Before that they actually showed very good performances, because in the group stage they won 6:2 against Iran or even 0:3 against Wales. In the last sixteen they also won 3-0 against Senegal. Despite these good performances, it was a rather disappointing year, because in addition to being eliminated in the quarter-finals, the English also played disappointingly in the Nations League. In fact, not a single game was won there and in 6 games they only scored 4 goals. The negative highlight was certainly the 0:4 at home against Hungary.

England have a lot of world-class players in their squad, which makes it extremely difficult to predict a possible line-up. The squad is similar to that of the World Cup. So there hasn't been a major upheaval. New is Ivan Toney from Brentford FC. James Maddison, who missed the World Cup due to injury, is also there. Perhaps the best player at the moment is Bukayo Saka, who leads the Premier League with his Arsenal FC. Captain Harry Kande will be in the center of the attack. There shouldn't be any doubts about Jude Bellingham either. In general, the coach could field exactly the same team as in the quarter-finals against France. All the players from the starting line-up back then are also there this time.

Last year's Nations League was a disastrous picture and only Harry Kane had good form on offense. At the World Cup they are one of the strongest offensive teams in the league. They scored 13 goals in just 5 games there. Only in the 0-0 draw against the USA did they remain without a goal of their own. In the Gareth Southgate era, the side have scored 186 times in 81 games. On average, this results in more than 2.00 goals per game.

Italy - England: What to expect? 

These two national teams have already met 30 times. Italy has the better record, winning 13 of those 30 games. England have scored 8 times so far and 9 games have ended in a draw. The current form also speaks more for the Italians, because they are unbeaten in 6 games against the Three Lions.The last defeat was in 2012 in a friendly match. The last 6 games ended with 3 draws and 3 wins for Italy. Only once were more than 2.5 goals scored after 90 minutes. The last time the two clubs met in the Nations League was last year. Italy won the home game 1-0 and still drew 0-0 away. Giacomo Raspadori, who is currently injured, scored the goal in the home game.

Italy have scored 14 goals in their last 10 games. England, on the other hand, have scored 17 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 2.5, the teams averaged 3.1 goals per game. Therefore we recommend Under 3.5 goals or Over 2.5 goals as likely variants. Both teams scored in an average of 65% of games. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.

There is no clear favorite in such a top game. However, the direct duels clearly speak for the Italians, who also have the home advantage on their side. For a double chance bet, we would therefore choose 1/X. A low over/under bet is also suitable. Hardly many goals are scored in direct duels. Here we recommend a tip of less than 2.5 goals.

• Italy not to lose (1X double chance) 
• Under 2.5

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.