First step for the Recopa Sudamericana

It is not only in Europe that the winners of the Europa League and the winners of the Champions League meet within the framework of the UEFA Super Cup. In South America, the winners of the Copa Sudamericana and Copa Libertadores also compete. In contrast to the European counterpart, the Recopa Sudamericana is only decided after the first and second leg.

This week sees the first of two clashes between South American premier class winner Flamengo RJ and Copa Sudamericana winner Independiente del Valle. It's not the first time that the two top clubs from South America have met in the Super Cup. Just three years ago, Independiente del Valle and Flamengo RJ met in the Recopa Sudamericana 2020. At that time, the “Mengao” from Rio de Janeiro prevailed against the Ecuadorians with a total score of 5-2.

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Independiente del Valle analysis

Independiente del Valle is represented in the Recopa Sudamericana for the second time in the club's history. As in the first participation in the South American Super Cup almost three years ago, the "Los Negriazules" meet Flamengo RJ again and benefit from the home advantage in the first leg.

Before the showdown with the Brazilians, Independiente del Valle had already gained a lot of self-confidence and won the Ecuadorian Super Cup almost two weeks ago. Since then, preparations for the Recopa Sudamericana 2023 have been in full swing. After all, the first leg in front of a home crowd is of great importance for the Ecuadorians.

At home, Independiente del Valle have not lost a single competitive game on the international stage since July 2021. That streak is set to continue against Flamengo RJ, but it also gives Independiente del Valle a chance to improve their record against Brazilian clubs.

Will Independiente defy the Brazilians again? The "Los Negriazules" have lost only eight of a total of 21 competitive games against teams from Brazil. The last time was in May 2022 when Independiente del Valle lost to Atlético-MG in the Copa Libertadores group stage. The H2h against Flamengo RJ is still impressive: After all, the Ecuadorians have never lost a home game against "Mengao".

At home, Independiente del Valle are 1-1-0 at home to Flamengo RJ, having won their most recent competitive clash 5-0 against the Brazilian side at the Estadio Banco Guayaquil. The black and blue should therefore not be underestimated in the upcoming showdown.

Head coach Martín Anselmi can draw on plenty of resources and has no serious personal worries to complain about. Compared to the starting XI that won the Ecuadorian Super Cup almost two weeks ago, no major changes are expected for the “Los Negriazules”.

Flamengo analysis

At the 2023 Club World Cup, Flamengo RJ was knocked out in the semi-finals and missed out on the final against the Madrilenians. The Brazilians surprisingly lost the encounter against Al-Hilal SC, although the semi-final defeat was partly due to being outnumbered. Flamengo were sent off in the semi-finals of the 2023 Club World Cup in the first half.

There was at least one consolation for Flamengo RJ in the third-place play-off. The Mengao beat Al Ahly 4-2 to take third place at the 2023 Club World Cup. Since then, the Red-Blacks have only played in the Rio de Janeiro state championship, with the last two group games against VRFC and Resende was partly put on a second guard.

The double burden of the state championship should therefore not be overestimated with regard to the Recopa Sudamericana 2023. The Brazilians will be going into the Super Cup against Independiente del Valle with their full squad and probably only have to do without Bruno Henrique due to injury.

Flamengo RJ are making their second appearance in the CONMEBOL Super Cup, along with fellow opponents Ecuador. At the first participation in 2020 - the "Mengao" qualified for it by winning the title in the Copa Libertadores 2019 - Flamengo RJ won the title in the Recopa Sudamericana for the first time with an overall result of 5:2.

Since then, the Rio de Janeiro giants have met Independiente del Valle twice more, both in the Copa Libertadores. Flamengo RJ went down 5-0 away, but the Brazilians won 4-0 in the match in front of their home crowd.

Independiente del Valle - Flamengo: What to expect? 

For the fifth time, Independiente del Valle and Flamengo RJ meet on the international stage. Two of these four encounters took place as part of the South American Super Cup 2020. At that time, after a goal-rich draw (2-2) in Quito, Flamengo won 3-0 in Rio de Janeiro.

Only a few months later, the two clubs met again in the following season in the premier class. In the group stage, Independiente del Valle saw off Flamengo RJ 5-0. The second half of the game, however, won the "Mengao" from Rio 4-0. Thus, in Independiente del Valle vs. Flamengo, a forecast of over 2.5 goals in each competitive game between the two clubs came true.

The year 2023 has not gone well for Flamengo RJ so far. The "Mengao" not only missed the first title of this calendar year in the Brazilian Super Cup, but also disappointed in the context of the Club World Cup 2023. Flamengo lost against an - at least on paper - much weaker opponent like Al Hilal SC and thus missed that Final against Real Madrid.

But the Brazilians got at least third place at the Club World Cup. Since then, Flamengo have completed other matches in the state championship of Rio de Janeiro, relying mainly on the reserves and youth players. For the first time since the Club World Cup in 2023, all top performers will be used again against Independiente del Valle. Note that Flamengo has never won away against Indepediente. 

Because the Super Cup will only be decided after a two-legged match, we still think it's risky to bet on a Brazilian success in the upcoming encounter in Quito. After all, Independiente is a force at home and has not lost a competitive game on the international stage since July 2021. It can therefore not be ruled out that the Ecuadorians will also defy the guests from Brazil. With a bet of three units in Independiente del Valle vs. Flamengo we risk a bet on the draw 

• Draw (X)
• Double Chance 1X

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.