Juve needs a win in Derby della Mole to stay on target

After the point deduction this season, the old lady would like to at least reach the international places. Only 3 points separate them from the Europa Conference League place at the moment. After 3 wins in a row they want to get the 3 points in the derby as well. The guests and city rivals are only one point behind the old lady in 9th place and they are still the clear outsiders.

The hosts are actually playing a strong season and currently have a place in the Champions League. After the point deduction, Juventus Turin is only in 8th place and thus outside the international places. The Champions League will probably not be within reach for the old lady this year. 

The big goal is still a place among the top 6 in the table. To do that, they need to continue their winning streak. They have already won the last 3 games, now they want to prevail in the derby against FC Torino, the so-called Derby della Mole, named after the Mole Antonelliana, a major landmark in the city and the architectural symbol of the Piedmontese capital.

The guests don't feel nearly as much pressure as the opponent, but they are still within reach of the Conference League places. Having lost only one game in their last 5 games, they too are in good shape

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Juventus recovered after poor start

It's anything but an easy season for Juventus. The start of the season was bad and after recovering and showing better performances the league points were deducted. The team slipped into the second half of the table and since then a place in the Champions League has probably been history, the gap to the best teams in the league is too big. 

Despite these setbacks, the team was always able to recover. In the last few weeks, morality has been shown once more and 3 wins in a row have been won . With 32 points on the account, they are now back in the top half of the table in 8th place.

Not everything went well in 2023, because on January 13th they suffered a 5-1 defeat against leaders SSC Napoli. Only a few days later they had to be content with a 3:3 against Atalanta. On the 20th day of play they suffered a 0-2 defeat against AC Monza. Since this almost embarrassing defeat, however, the turnaround has been achieved. Victories against Salernitana, Florence and Spezia Calcio followed in the last few weeks. In each of these victories, the team kept a clean sheet. The offensive scored a good 6 goals during this period and thus 2.00 goals per game. In general, Juventus failed to score in just one game this year. This was in the 2-0 loss to Monza. 

Juventus is still a force in their own stadium. In the home table they are in 4th place, only 4 points behind SSC Napoli. They have only lost once in 12 home games. This was at 0-2 against AC Monza. They won 8 of 12 home games, 3 more games ended in a draw. The great strength of Juventus is the defensive. In 12 home games they conceded just 8 goals and thus less than 1.00 goals per game.After all, Damist is the 3rd best home defense. They have not conceded a goal in 8 home games, including the last one against Florence (1-0). However, this was the only home win in the past 3 games. Exactly half of the 12 home games ended with less than 2.5 goals.

The offensive department is certainly not the great strength of the old lady. With Kaio Jorge and Arkadiusz Milik, two players are currently out due to injury. Top striker Dusan Vlahovic is also slow to recover from his injury and has only come off the bench in the last few games. With 8 goals, he is still the most successful goalscorer in the team. 

The currently best player on the offensive is the world champion Angel Di Maria. The Argentine scored a hat-trick in the last competitive game in the Europa League in a 0-3 away win.He is currently trying to keep the offensive going together with Moise Kean and Filip Kostic. On the defensive, however, coach Massimiliano Allegri continues to rely on the 3 Brazilians Alex Sandro, Bremer and Danilo. Other injury-related absentees include Paul Pogba and Fabio Miretti.

Torino analysis

After two difficult years in 2020 and 2021, the club recovered significantly last season and finished in 10th place. This also put them quite close to the international starting places. However, they last achieved this in 2019/20. This year they are in a similar starting situation as in the last season, because after 23 matchdays they are in 9th place in the table.They are currently only 3 points short of the Europa Conference League place. They are only one point behind their city rivals. However, this is primarily due to the point deduction, because Turin can only show a balanced record of 8 wins, 7 draws and 8 defeats. The goal ratio is similar and is 24-25 goals.

Like the opponent, FC Torino will start the game with a lot of self-confidence. This is mainly due to the last few weeks where the team has shown good performances. Although they are currently 2 games without a win, the away defeat against AC Milan is the only one in the last 5 games. In this period they got at least 2 narrow 1-0 victories against Florence and Udinese. Another game ended with a 2-2 against FC Empoli. The last home game against Cremonese also ended 2-2. The goal difference in the last 5 games is based on these results at 6-5. 

In the away table they can find FC Torino in a good 10th place and thus again in the middle of the table. In 12 games they picked up 15 points and thus 19 points less than the strongest team Napoli. After all, they got 4 away wins and 3 more ended in a draw. They made more than half of their away games positive. They lost in 5 games. 17 goals conceded in 12 games is a decent value for a team in 10th place. Offensively, however, one is too harmless here, because with only 14 goals, they only manage just over one goal per game on average. But they only stayed in 2 of 12 away games without conceding a goal. 10 times they counted at least one goal.

Juventus - Torino: What to expect? 

The Turin derby has become a fairly clear affair in recent years. The old lady usually emerges as the winner. Torino FC's last win was on April 26, 2015 when they won 2-1 at home. Since then Juve have gone 17 consecutive games unbeaten and won 13 in that span . Also this season they were able to win the first duel away from home with a narrow margin of 0-1. The last home game ended with a 1-1 draw. Overall, the last 3 games all ended with Under 2.5 goals. Turin was successful only once in this period.

Juventus have scored 17 goals in their last 10 games. Torino, on the other hand, scored 9 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 2.0, the teams averaged 2.6 goals per game. 

Therefore we recommend Under 3.5 goals or Over 2.5 goals as likely variants. On average, both teams have scored in 80% of the games. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.

Juventus recently celebrated 3 wins in a row and are therefore in good form. In the last few derbies, they could almost always prevail against their city rivals. With odds of over 1.70, a Juve winning bet is therefore also ideal for a combination bet. 

Due to the rather harmless offensive of the guests in away games, even a clean sheet victory for Juventus is conceivable.

• Juventus to win to nil (risk)
• Juventus to win

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.