Can Milan stay unbeaten against Napoli for the 3rd time in a few weeks?

For the guests from Milan, SSC Napoli is slowly becoming something of a favorite opponent. After defeating them 4-0 in the league, they also narrowly won the first leg of the Champions League 1-0. It is now a matter of bringing this lead over time. Naples, on the other hand, will of course do everything to turn the game around.

SSC Naples is something of a surprise team in the top European leagues. In Serie A, the team dominates almost at will and the championship title is unlikely to be taken away from them. In the Champions League, too, they showed strong performances throughout the season and defeated Liverpool FC, among others. But now they are in a difficult situation for the first time, because after the 1-0 defeat in the first leg they have to deliver at home. Anything less than a win would mean the end. 

Getting into the semi-finals is the team's main goal. AC Milan also wants to go there. Although they lag behind in their own expectations in the league, they can regularly shine against the big teams. A draw in Naples would be enough for them to get to the semis.

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Can Napoli turn the table?

SSC Napoli is the big surprise in international football this season. The team not only leads the Italian Serie A confidently, but has also developed into a secret favorite for the title in the Champions League. In the group stage they left one Liverpool behind. In the last few games, however, they lost the thread a bit. Only one of the last 4 competitive games could be won and this was a narrow 1-2 away win against Lecce.During this time they had to admit defeat twice against AC Milan. 

Once in the league with 0-4 and once in the Champions League with 1-0. In both games they remained without a goal. Last weekend, they couldn't get beyond a 0-0 draw against Hellas Verona. The absence of star striker Victor Osimhen is a lot more than expected, after all Napoli have only scored 2 goals in the last 4 games. In the second leg, however, the Nigerian could start again.

Napoli have only suffered 6 defeats this season. However, 3 of those 6 bankruptcies have been caught since March. These were always important top games. At home, Lazio lost 1-0, followed by 2 bankruptcies against AC Milan. With the draw against Hellas Verona last weekend, only one of the last 4 competitive games was won. The roster isn't as broad as other teams, which was shown with the absence of Victor Osimhen. Despite these performances, which have not always been strong recently, the championship title in the league can no longer be taken away from them. There they have at least 14 points ahead of Lazio Rome. In the Champions League, however, a win against Milan is now a must, because otherwise there is a risk of being eliminated in the quarter-finals.

A statistic that clearly speaks for SSC Napoli is the home record in the Champions League. That's where they dominated their games this season, mostly with a dangerous offensive. In the group phase they scored 11 goals in only 3 home games and thus almost 4.00 goals per game. Among other things, they defeated Liverpool 4-1. In the KO phase, they also showed their potential and won 3:0 against Eintracht Frankfurt. In the last two home games they even remained without a goal. However, every home game of Naples in the Champions League ended with more than 2.5 goals.

Napoli have some top stars in their roster, but they don't have as broad a roster as other teams in the Champions League quarter-finals. A failure of a service provider can therefore only be compensated for with difficulty. Victor Osimhen should now be fit again and start against Milan in the quarter-finals. With the Nigerian on the field, they still have a 21-goal striker in the squad. Other players were also rested for this second leg last weekend. They should therefore go into the game against Milan in top form. In addition to Kvaratskhelia and Osimhen, it is also important that the defense is good and does not allow a goal.

Will Milan be the surprise team in the Champions League?

Despite a good group stage and strong performances against Tottenham in the round of 16, hardly anyone had AC Milan on their list. The reigning Serie A champions have not played consistently enough all season and are only fourth in the league. The fact that they can keep up with the best teams in Europe comes as a bit of a surprise. But this is particularly evident in the quarter-finals. In the game against the overwhelming team of SSC Naples, they managed not to concede a goal and narrowly won the game 1-0.Like their opponents, AC Milan's squad isn't very broad, but with players like Rafael Leao and Brahim Diaz, they have plenty of individual quality. The goal in the second leg is of course to reach the semi-finals. There could even be a Milan derby there.

Although the guests are in the quarter-finals of the Champions League and defeated SSC Napoli in the first leg, the team has not had an easy season. In the league, after 30 match days, they ou are only in 4th place in the table and are therefore still fighting for a place in the Champions League. In second place, they are missing a whole 8 points.The last 2 games in the league ended in a draw, generally only one of the last 6 games in Serie A was won and that was against Napoli. In the round of 16 of the Champions League, they defeated Tottenham with a total score of 1-0 goals. It thus becomes clear relatively quickly that the team in the premier class acts from a secure defensive position. They haven't conceded a single goal in the last 5 Champions Leagues and only one goal has been conceded in the last 3 games in Serie A as well.

At Milan, of course, one hopes above all for a player and that is Rafael Leao. At 23, he is already the best player in the squad and, at €80m, also by far the most valuable. After a terrific last season in which he shot the club to the championship, he has already scored a good 11 goals and 11 assists in 39 games this year.In the premier class he only scored once, but he added 4 more goals. Together with Olivier Giroud and Brahim Diaz he will probably form the offensive. The defensive could be so good is conducted by Fikayo Tomori. Theo Hernandez is arguably one of the best left-backs in the world and Mike Maignan has the French international back between the posts. Apart from Zlatan Ibrahimovic, they don't have to do without any important players.

Napoli - Milan: What to expect? 

Before the first leg we would have clearly favored SSC Napoli in this duel, but Milan have already shown in 2 games that they can neutralize the hosts very well. In their own stadium, Napoli is a force this year and has scored 3 goals in every Champions League game so far. 

If Naples scores quickly, Milan will also have to act a little more offensively, and there could be an exchange of blows afterwards. In contrast to the bookmakers, we could therefore imagine a game with more than 2.5 goals . Especially at the beginning Naples will try to impress the guests. So it wouldn't surprise us if Napoli lead at half-time.

• Over 2.5
• Napoli to win from 1st Half (1/1) 

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.