Ireland meets Latvia in a friendly
Ireland hasn't always cut a good figure in recent years and is no longer one of the dangerous underdogs in international matches. With the friendly game against Latvia they want to prepare as best as possible for the European Championship qualification. Latvia is the clear underdog in this game. But a win could also give them self-confidence for the first round of qualifying.
The Irish have not qualified for a major event since 2016. At that time they were at the European Championships and even reached the round of 16. Such a success is now a long way off, because the development curve has clearly pointed downwards in recent years. Ireland no longer have world-class players in their squad and are therefore only the underdogs this time around.
In the friendly against Latvia, however, they are the favorites. With a win they want to prepare well for the first qualifying game. The guests will probably only be able to fight for the penultimate place in the European Championship qualifiers. They are arguably the worst team in Group D. A point against Ireland would also be a big win.
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Ireland has nothing left to lose now
This may sound a bit harsh, but in recent years the national team has deteriorated so much that it is now believed that it can only get better. Since 2016 one has not managed to qualify for a major event and deserves it. Apart from two good goalkeepers and some quality in defence, the national team no longer has any internationally strong players. Many only play in lower leagues and England.
This is also shown by the fact that goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu is by far the most valuable player in the squad with €18 million. In the 2024 European Championship qualification, they also only have outsider chances, after all they are in a group there with France and the Netherlands.Nevertheless, they want to prepare as best as possible and therefore also play a friendly against Latvia.
Ireland was able to rehabilitate itself somewhat last year, as the balance was even positive overall. From 10 games they got 4 wins and two more games ended in a draw. Among other things, they could play 2-2 at home against Belgium. They also drew a respectable 1-1 away against Ukraine. In the Nations League they also defeated Scotland 3-0 and also beat Armenia 3-2 at home. In the end it was enough in the B1 group for 3rd place and thus for staying up. With 8 goals from 6 games, the offensive was in good shape for their standards. Ireland have managed to score consistently in their last 6 games.They played their last game on November 20th away against Malta, which they narrowly won 1-0.
Most of Ireland's games don't end with a goal spectacle, which is also shown by the goal difference under coach Stephen Kenny. After 30 games, this is 36-32 goals. Defensively they are therefore usually very good, after all, they hardly concede more than one goal per game. However, in the last year things have turned around with 4 of Ireland's last 6 games ending with more than 2.5 goals. Both teams were able to score for the 4th time.
Ireland have the most quality in the squad in defense. Here you will find 2 Premier League goalkeepers as well as strong defenders. Nathan Collins is set for Wolverhampton Wanderers, while Matt Doherty currently plays for Atletico Madrid. Captain Seamus Coleman is an Everton legend.
On the offensive, on the other hand, players who act at the highest level are missing. But with Evan Ferguson they could give a talent the first chance in the national team. The 18-year-old is having a surprisingly good season at Brighton and has already scored 3 goals. Michael Obafemi from Burnley FC also has good prerequisites for gaining a foothold in the national team.
Latvia, one of the great underdogs again
Latvia is in a group with Croatia, Wales, Armenia and Turkey for the European Championship qualification. There they are, together with Armenia, the big outsider on one of the qualifying places. It would already be a great success if they could reach the 4th place in the group and not the last place.
However, Latvia has actually managed to qualify for a European Championship finals once before. At the 2004 European Championships in Portugal, they were in a group with Germany, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands in the preliminary round. They didn't make it into the Knockout phase, but it was the biggest success in history. They have never qualified for a World Cup before.
The year 2022 was quite successful for the Latvians, because in the UEFA Nations League they managed to get promoted to Group C for the first time. They prevailed in a group with Moldova, Andorra and Liechtenstein. In the end they had 13 points and thus the same number as Moldova, but the better goal difference was then on the side of Latvia.They won 4 out of 6 group games, one ended in a draw and only one game was lost.
The only defeat they conceded was at home against Moldova (1-2). Away, however, they remained undefeated in 3 games. They were even able to win 2 of these 3 away games. Latvia also managed to score a goal in every group game. In the end, the goal difference was 12-5 goals. This also allowed fewer than 1.00 goals per game.
In the squad of Latvia you hardly find a well-known player who plays in a European top league. Their squad market value is just under € 11 million. The most valuable player is Raimonds Krollis. The first 21-year-old striker is currently under contract with Spezia Calcio in the Italian Serie A. However, he is rarely used there. Due to a red suspension, he will not be available for Latvia in the game against Ireland.
The team will therefore rely on Vladislavs Gutkovskis in attack. This was their top scorer in the Nations League with 5 goals. No fewer than 8 players are under contract with home club RFS. Their advantage should therefore be that many players at club level know each other well and are attuned to each other.
Ireland - Latvia: What to expect?
Ireland have scored 13 goals in their last 10 games. Latvia, on the other hand, scored 17 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 6.0, the teams scored an average of 3.0 goals per game. Therefore we recommend Under 3.5 goals or Over 2.5 goals as likely variants. Both teams scored in 85% of games on average. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.
However, the year 2022 did not end on a positive note after the Nations League, because the last two friendlies against Estonia and Iceland could not be won. However, neither of these two games was lost in regular time. As a result, Latvia was only beaten in one game last year. In the last 11 games they also always managed to mark a goal.
Ireland is the clear favorite in this game. Although they don't have a good national team at the moment either, they should still win against Latvia at home. Tip 1 is not particularly lucrative with odds of just under 1.30. As an alternative, we would therefore bet on under 3.5 goals . If you combine these two tips, you even get odds of 1.90. A bet on under 2.5 goals would be a bit riskier here.
- Ireland to win
- Under 3.5
- Under 2.5 (risk)
* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.