Top game in Portugal 

It's the biggest game that the Portuguese league has to offer at the moment. Benfica Lisbon meets FC Porto at home. It's not too exciting this year, because the hosts already have a lead of 10 points at the top of the table. FC Porto will still try to make the league leaders nervous again. With the bookies, however, they are the outsiders.

The hosts will be crowned champions in the Portuguese league for the first time in 3 years. After 26 matchdays they already have a lead of 10 points over the closest pursuer FC Porto. Even in the event of a defeat in a direct duel, the lead would still be comfortable. Nonetheless, this game is also about prestige, which is why Benfica are also keen to win. The guests may not be having a bad season, but they have already lost as many games as they have in the last two seasons combined. In the long-distance duel against SC Braga, they also fight for the direct Champions League place and thus also for the runner-up championship.

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Benfica to seal the deal

The hosts have been waiting for their next Portuguese league title for 3 years. The last time they did so was in the 2018/19 season. In the last two years it was only enough for 3rd place in the table, which meant that they had to qualify for the Champions League. In all probability, this fate will not befall them this year, because after 26 matchdays they are at the top of the table with a large lead. With 10 points more than FC Porto, the championship title can hardly be taken away from them, even if they lose in a direct duel . Benfica certainly has less pressure than their opponents. In addition, Benfica is still unbeaten at home this year and has won 12 of 13 home games.

The club already lost two important players in Darwin Nunez and Julian Weigl in the summer. World Champion Enzo Fernandez left in the winter. Despite these setbacks, the team did not let themselves be unsettled and continued to move up the table. With Joao Mario and Goncalo Ramos they still have two incredibly strong offensive players in the squad who both have 17 goals this season.With players like Antonio Silva or Casper Tengstedt, the next talents are already appearing again. David Neres is also having a good season after moving from Ajax Amsterdam and already has 12 points. He is as seeded as Rafa Silva. The first team is almost self-organizing at the moment, but this is also due to the fact that the squad isn't that wide, especially in central midfield it's very sparse.

The hosts have by far the most wins this season. After all, they were able to win 23 of 26 games. They also only conceded a single defeat and are a lonely top. Benfica can provide the best offense and the best defense in the whole league. With 67 goals on the account, they ensure an average of more than 2.00 goals per game. The defensive also hardly allows anything and conceded only 14 goals. On average, they concede 0.6 goals per game. They even conceded 10 goals in 13 games in their own stadium, so they’re only number 5 here. But here the offensive is the best. With 42 goals, they ensure more than 3,00 goals per home game.

In their own stadium Benfica is even unbeaten this year. In the league they won 12 of 13 home games. The only draw was in the derby and top game against Sporting Lisbon where they had to be content with a 2-2. Since this game, however, 4 home games have been won in a row and in each of them they could mark at least 2 goals. Overall, the goal difference in the last 4 games is 13-1.In general, the Adler can show an impressive series again, because in the league they have recently won 10 games in a row. In the Champions League they also made it into the quarterfinals where they will meet Inter Milan. In the round of 16 they defeated FC Bruges with a total score of 7-1 goals.

Porto can’t defend the title

FC Porto has probably been the best and most consistent team in Portugal in recent years. In the last 5 years they won the championship title 3 times, including last season. At that time they collected a total of 91 points and suffered only one defeat.This year, after 26 matchdays, they already have 3 defeats and thus as many as in the past two seasons together. The gap to leaders Benfica is therefore already 10 points. 

They probably don't have a real chance of winning the title anymore, but they still have to win the game against Benfica. If they lose, they could still lose second place. SC Braga is only 2 points behind in 3rd place. The direct Champions League qualification would also be gone.

One of Porto's weaknesses this season is clearly their away appearances. Although they are in a reasonable 3rd place in the away table, they have already ended 4 games with a draw in addition to a defeat. They could therefore only win 8 out of 13 away games this season.This is probably due to a harmless offensive, because they only scored 20 goals in 13 games. With that they don't even manage to score 2.00 goals per game - clearly not enough for a top team. Defensively, on the other hand, they are usually very stable, which is shown very clearly by the 8 goals conceded. They were able to finish the last away game without conceding a goal, but this ended with a 0:0 against SC Braga. After all, they remained unbeaten in 11 away games in a row.

In recent years, FC Porto have always had some great talents in their squad. But they always had to give that up relatively quickly, including last summer when they lost two important pillars in Vitinha and Fabio Vieira. This season, no talent has really been able to impose itself, which is also evident when you look at the scorer list. There, the experienced Mehdi Taremi clearly leads the list with 13 goals. Behind only the 25-year-old Galeno scored more than 6 goals. So they lack some offensive power. The injury of the 3rd top scorer Evanilson does not necessarily help here. Defender Fabio Cardoso scored the only goal of the game on the final day of the game.

Benfica - Porto: What to expect? 

Benfica have scored 27 goals in their last 10 games. FC Porto, on the other hand, scored 12 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 14.0, the teams averaged 3.9 goals per game. Therefore we recommend Under 4.5 goals or Over 3.5 goals as likely variants. Both teams scored in 85% of games on average. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.

Based on the season so far, we would favor the home team. The pressure is clearly on the guests, because they have to win to secure second place. We would still opt for a draw no bet bet 1 . The last direct duels also show that there are usually not too many hits. We therefore recommend an under bet on under 2.5 goals.

• Under 2.5
• Benfica not to lose (1 DNB, or 1X)

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.