Can Atletico use the momentum from the last matchday?

Atletico Madrid defeated FC Sevilla 6-1 on the last matchday. This confirms the 3rd place in the table and increases the lead to 5th place. In Girona they want to continue their successful run, but the hosts are playing a good season and still have the chance of an international starting place.

FC Girona spent 3rd seasons in the Segunda Division before this season and surprisingly managed to get promoted back to the Primera Division last year as 6th in the table. So far they've been doing very well there, because after 24 match days it's clear that they shouldn't have anything to do with the relegation battle. 

After all, they are in 11th place in the table and are only 5 points away from a place in the European Cup. But now, in Atletico Madrid, they are facing an almost overwhelming opponent. The guests are among the championship favorites every year and are again in a good 3rd place this year. However, the Rojiblancos will not be completely satisfied with this season

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Girona’s great season

Girona has spent most of the last 10 years in the Segunda division. In the seasons 2017/18 and 2018/19 they were also in La Liga for two years. Most recently, they played in the 2nd league again for 3 years and showed strong performances there. With 6th place last season, it was still a bit surprising that they could prevail in the end and made the climb. 

So far they have impressively proven that they can keep up with the level in the Primera Division. After 23 games they are in 11th place and therefore only just in the bottom half of the table. But with a win they could climb further and get even closer to the international places.

Girona has a negative, but very decent record for a promoted team. After 23 match days, this stands at 8 wins, 6 draws and 10 defeats. The goal difference is even balanced and stands at 38:38 goals. The current form is impressive, because they have won 2 of the last 3 games. The offensive was particularly convincing. Girona have scored 11 goals in the last 3 games, which is almost 4.00 goals per game.

In general, the offensive is probably the strength, because with 38 goals they have the strongest offensive row in the lower half of the table. Defensively things aren't going quite so well with only 3 teams in the league conceding more goals than Girona. The team ended 14 of 24 league games with more than 2.5 goals. They actually only managed to keep a clean sheet once this year. This was the case on Matchday 20 in the home game against Valencia.

They make an even better impression in the home games this year. The promoted team even takes 6th place in the home table, right behind Atletico Madrid. In 12 home games they only lost 3 times and they won half of these 12 home games. With 23 goals, they score an average of almost 2.00 goals per game. The biggest home win was celebrated in the last home game against Almeria. They could win this game 6-2. It was the 2nd home win in a row for Girona and the 3rd in the last 4 games. The only defeat in this period was against FC Barcelona. This game was also the only one where they couldn't score by themselves.

The club has strengthened in the summer with one or two well-known players. Among other things, Viktor Tsygankov or Reinier was committed. The best transfer so far has been that of Taty Castellanos from New York City. The Argentinian is the team's top scorer along with his experienced strike partner Cristhian Stuani. Both strikers are currently holding 6 goals this season. However, coach Michel only relies on one of the two in his 4-1-4-1 system. On the last day of the game, Castellanos was back on the top scorers list, but was unable to prevent the 3-2 defeat at FC Getafe.

Atletico Madrid in good shape

In the past few weeks, the team has shown significantly better performances and has now fought its way back to third place in the table. In the league they won 6-1 against FC Sevilla last matchday, before that they drew 1-1 away in the Madrid derby. So things seem to be going in the right direction again, but the season of the rojiblancos should be viewed critically. The team will no longer have anything to do with the championship fight and in the Champions League they were already eliminated in the group stage. For them, it's now primarily about doing damage limitation and achieving a top 4 place in the table.

In practically every season in the past 5 years, Atletico Madrid has had one of the best defensive lines in the entire league and actually in Europe. This year this was not always apparent, but in the meantime the turnaround has been achieved here as well. In the last 7 games they have only conceded 3 goals against Sevilla, Real and Getafe. Four times they remained without a goal, while three times a game ended with a narrow 1-0 victory. Overall, they conceded 19 goals in 24 league games this year. After all, they are number 3 in Spain. However, things are a little better away from home, where they conceded only 8 goals in 12 games. Only FC Barcelona have conceded a goal less here.

The team is in 4th place in the away table. At least 24 points were collected in 12 games. They were able to win 7 of the 12 away games, 3 ended in a draw and only 2 times they had to admit defeat. The two defeats were conceded in the autumn. They had to admit defeat on the 12th matchday to Cadiz and on the 14th matchday to Mallorca. Since these two defeats, however, they have remained unbeaten for 4 games in a row. 2 of these last 4 away games were won with a tight 0:1. The other two games ended in a 1:1 draw. 4th time in a row there were less than 2.5 hits. In the last 6 league games, only one game has generally ended with more than 2.5 goals.

The Frenchman is currently in top form again and is now the best scorer in the team. He has already scored 8 goals this season and prepared 9 more. The highlight was certainly last weekend when he was directly involved in 5 of the 6 goals against Sevilla. His strike partners Memphis Depay and Alvaro Morata also had a strong day and each scored twice. One of the few problems coach Diego Simeone has at the moment is filling the left-back position. With Sergio Reguillon and Reinildo Mandava, the regular left-backs are absent here. Apart from that, the team is spared the bad luck with injuries.

Girona - Atletico Madrid: What to expect? 

Girona have scored 18 goals in their last 10 games. Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, have scored 18 goals. If we disregard the goal difference of both teams, which averaged 7.5, the teams averaged 3.6 goals per game. Therefore we recommend Under 4.5 goals or Over 3.5 goals as likely variants. Both teams scored in 85% of games on average. The probability based on the last games suggests that this time both teams can score.

Girona is having a good season as a promoted team, but shouldn't stand a chance against a strong Atletico. The guests have odds of 2.10 on a win, which is why tip 2 can be recommended as a risk bet. If the guests can confirm their performance from the last game, they will win the game. But we're not assuming a runaway victory, because the main focus in the last few weeks has clearly been on defending. We therefore assume Under 3.5 goals in the game.

• Atletico Madrid to win
• Under 3.5 goals

* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.