Italian champions meet the Spurs
AC Milan meets Tottenham Hotspur in the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League . The first leg will take place on Tuesday, at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium in Milan. Milan are slightly favored at home in the first leg, but Spurs have the advantage to reach the quarter-finals. Here it comes to an Italian coaching duel between Stefano Pioli and Antonio Conte.
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AC Milan analysis
AC Milan, as the reigning Italian champions, could miss the coming season in the premier class. The Rossoneri are in such bad shape now. Coach Stefano Pioli's team beat Torino 1-0 at the weekend. But that was the first success after 7 games without a win and 4 bankruptcies in a row. In Serie A, Milan have slipped down to fifth, level on points with third and just 2 points ahead of sixth-placed Lazio.
Milan have lost 2 of their last 3 home appearances – against Inter and Sassuolo before winning again against Torino after 4 home games without a win (D2 L2). There are voices in Milan calling for Pioli to be replaced if the Rossoneri don't reach the Champions League quarter-finals or miss the top four in Serie A. Spurs manager Conte is said to be the successor.
AC Milan have failed to score in 2 of their last 4 home games. That has happened in 4 league games this season, however they have at least doubled in 6 of their last 10 matches . In 6 of their last 7 competitive games, the Rossoneri have conceded their first goal of the game and as a result have been behind in 5 of their last 6 games after 45 minutes.
Milan made it into the knockout stages of the premier class for the first time in 9 years. In the previous season, the Italians got stuck in the group stage. The Rossoneri have already won the Champions League 7 times, but are now miles away from the favorites.
Milan progressed as group runners-up behind Chelsea, just ahead of Salzburg. In the final for second place, the Rossoneri won 4-0 at home against RB. In Salzburg you couldn't get beyond a draw. The Italians won twice against Zagreb and lost twice against Chelsea . This means 2 home wins with 1 loss.
Tottenham analysis
Tottenham Hotspur is also not in the best shape before the Champions League round of 16, but has at least won 3 of the last 4 competitive games. At the weekend, however, it was a sensitive 1- 4 loss in Leicester . The Spurs are also in 5th place in the Premier League, 2 points behind the top 4. Now Antonio Conte's team is a dangerous underdog in Milan.
Before the disaster in Leicester, Tottenham won twice in a row – at Fulham in the London Derby and at Preston North End in the FA Cup. The North Londoners have over 1.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 away games. In the Premier League, the Spurs have won 5 wins and 3 draws in 4 defeats in 12 guest appearances and are therefore 5th in the away table. The Conte-Elf scored 20 goals with 20 goals conceded .
Over 3.5 goals have been scored in 4 of the last 6 away games . Although the Spurs are strong in attack, they also allow a lot at the back. Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 9 away games. Therefore, many goals could already be scored in Milan, even if there are usually fewer goals to be seen in the first leg. Spurs have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 6 away games.
The Spurs survived the group stage of the Champions League for the 5th time in their 6th appearance. Now the English want to reach the quarterfinals for the third time. The last time this happened was 4 years ago, when they even advanced to the final . The last time Tottenham participated 3 years ago was in the round of 16 against Leipzig. According to the betting odds, the round of the last 8 is also possible this time, but no more.
Tottenham won the preliminary group ahead of Frankfurt, Sporting and Marseille. The Spurs lost in Lisbon and remained goalless in Frankfurt. With a home win over Eintracht and a home draw against Sporting, the Spurs just got the upper hand. The North Londoners could only win in Marseille and thus have a negative away record.
AC Milan - Tottenham: What to expect?
This is only the 5th meeting between the two clubs, the first in 12 years. Back then, Spurs threw Milan out of the Champions League in the round of 16 – with just 1 goal, which the English scored away. Tottenham remained undefeated in their second guest appearance in Milan (1 S, 1 U). the Milanese could not win in the first 4 comparisons with 2 defeats.
Both teams scored in the first two comparisons, but not in the last two. As a result , less than 2.5 goals were scored in the last 3 matches , in all 4 matches there were less than 3.5 goals to see. In the last two duels there was only 1 goal in total.
Milan's coach Pioli was only able to win once against Conte in 11 attempts - with 7 defeats and 3 draws. The Spurs manager has recorded 10 wins and 3 draws with just 1 loss in 14 meetings with Milan. So both the H2H comparison and the trainer duel for Conte clearly go to Tottenham.
Tottenham are unbeaten in Milan, so we recommend Double Chance X/2. The English lead at halftime, Milan can equalize after the change of sides. We expect goals from both teams, so we will see Over 2.5 goals.
- Double Chance X2
- Tottenham to win first half (risk)
- Over 2.5 goals
* All odds and markets are correct at time of publication and subject to change.